ScoreProb
Primera División Chile Round 27 2026

Union La Calera vs Huachipato

Union La Calera Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Huachipato Away · Elo 1,468
Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, La Calera Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union La Calera win
Union La Calera winPick
45.1%
Draw
26.9%
Huachipato win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Union La Calera history55 matches
Huachipato history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Union La Calera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,483 against 1,468. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Huachipato score more

    0.98 goals a game over 55 matches for Union La Calera, against 1.40 over 67 for Huachipato.

  • Defences are close

    Union La Calera concede 1.29 a game, Huachipato 1.42.

  • Huachipato games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Union La Calera matches, against 57% for Huachipato. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union La Calera
Huachipato@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.7
ELO
1467.7
55
ELO · Matches
67
1482.7
Current Team ELO
1467.7
1467.7
Current Opponent ELO
1482.7
14.96
Current ELO Difference
-14.96
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
67
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.42
Overperformance
48.86
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
67
1.07
PPG
1.34
27.3%
Win rate
37.3%
25.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
47.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.7%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
30
1.04
PPG
0.80
24.0%
Win rate
16.7%
32.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
53.3%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
25
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.40
63.6%
Scoring rate
67.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.24
Goals for per game
0.93
68.0%
Scoring rate
53.3%
48.0%
BTTS rate
36.7%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.53
63.2%
Scoring rate
68.4%
47.4%
BTTS rate
57.9%
55
History Matches
67
0.98
Goals Mean
1.40
1.04
Goals Std
1.29
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.42
70.9%
Conceding rate
70.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
76.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.95
73.7%
Conceding rate
84.2%
55
History Matches
67
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.19
Conceded Std
1.31
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.85
3.80
Stability score
2.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
67
14
Lead Matches
16
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.75
15
Trailing Matches
21
26.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.85
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
22
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
0.89
PPG
1.26
21.1%
Win rate
36.8%
26.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
52.6%
Loss rate
47.4%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
73.7%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
19
Current Competition Matches
19
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.26
-0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.42
5
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.95
Portability PPG Range
0.80
40.61
Portability Score
65.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO14.96
PPG-0.27
GF-0.42
GA-0.13
PPG-0.37
PPG0.24
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score1.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.26
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.15
Portability Score-25.16
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO14.96
Current Opponent ELO-14.96
Current ELO Difference29.93
Expected score0.04
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union La Calera

L
Coquimbo Unido1–0Union La Calera30 Oct · away
Pick: Coquimbo Unido 61% · hit
W
Union La Calera3–1U. Catolica25 Oct · home
Pick: U. Catolica 51% · missed
L
Union La Calera0–1D. La Serena31 Aug · home
Pick: D. La Serena 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Huachipato

D
Huachipato0–0D. La Serena1 Nov · home
Pick: Huachipato 40% · missed
D
A. Italiano1–1Huachipato23 Oct · away
Pick: A. Italiano 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union La Calera and Huachipato meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, La Calera. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Union La Calera win 45.1%, draw 26.9%, Huachipato win 28.0%. The pick is Union La Calera win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.