Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Universitatea Craiova
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Match result probability Model pick: Universitatea Craiova win
Universitatea Craiova winPick
46.6%
Draw
22.8%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
30.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%
How much we know
Universitatea Craiova history93 matches
Egnatia Rrogozhinë history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Universitatea Craiova
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Universitatea Craiova are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Universitatea Craiova are rated 61 Elo points higher
Elo 1,660 against 1,599. On rating alone Universitatea Craiova would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Universitatea Craiova score more
1.65 goals a game over 93 matches for Universitatea Craiova, against 1.44 over 82 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
-
Defences are close
Universitatea Craiova concede 0.99 a game, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.99.
-
Universitatea Craiova games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Universitatea Craiova matches, against 40% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Universitatea Craiova
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1659.9
ELO
1599.3
93
ELO · Matches
82
1659.9
Current Team ELO
1599.3
1599.3
Current Opponent ELO
1659.9
60.58
Current ELO Difference
-60.58
0.59
Expected score
0.41
93
History Matches
82
0.09
Residual Mean
0.06
57.31
Overperformance
54.94
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
1.80
Goals for per game
2.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals 90
93
Matches
82
1.82
PPG
1.66
51.6%
Win rate
45.1%
26.9%
Draw rate
30.5%
21.5%
Loss rate
24.4%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.3%
50.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.2%
31.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals 100
49
Matches
40
2.18
PPG
1.58
65.3%
Win rate
45.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
22.5%
12.2%
Loss rate
32.5%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
49
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.65
Goals for per game
1.44
81.7%
Scoring rate
74.4%
50.5%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.98
Goals for per game
1.25
93.9%
Scoring rate
72.5%
53.1%
BTTS rate
45.0%
93
History Matches
82
1.65
Goals Mean
1.44
1.28
Goals Std
1.28
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
47.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
21.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.4%
1.98
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.99
Goals against per game
0.99
61.3%
Conceding rate
61.0%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.08
57.1%
Conceding rate
65.0%
93
History Matches
82
0.99
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.08
Conceded Std
1.03
23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
93
History Matches
82
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.65
6.70
Stability score
3.03
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
93
Eligible Matches
81
35
Lead Matches
29
77.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
17
Trailing Matches
16
29.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
93
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.19
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
19
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.50
80.42
Portability Score
74.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
93
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO60.58
PPG0.16
GF0.21
GA0.00
PPG0.61
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score3.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate23.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score5.91
Rest days0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches14
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO60.58
Current Opponent ELO-60.58
Current ELO Difference121.2
Expected score0.17
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Universitatea Craiova
W
Universitatea Craiova2–1FC Botosani1 Nov · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 56% · hit D
FC Voluntari1–1Universitatea Craiova29 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 43% · missed W
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe0–5Universitatea Craiova26 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 46% · hit W
Inter Club d'Escaldes1–3Universitatea Craiova22 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 47% · hit D
Universitatea Craiova1–1Getafe15 Oct · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 62% · missed Egnatia Rrogozhinë
W
Tirana1–2Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 Nov · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 52% · hit W
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–0Teuta Durrës29 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 65% · hit L
Dinamo Tirana2–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë25 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 43% · missed D
Aarhus1–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44% · missed W
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3–1Vllaznia Shkodër18 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 61% · hit About this match
Universitatea Craiova and Egnatia Rrogozhinë meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Universitatea Craiova win 46.6%, draw 22.8%, Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 30.6%. The pick is Universitatea Craiova win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.