ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United

Uthai Thani Home · Elo 1,477
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chiangrai United Away · Elo 1,525
Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chiangrai United win
Uthai Thani win
33.8%
Draw
27.8%
Chiangrai United winPick
38.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Uthai Thani history49 matches
Chiangrai United history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chiangrai United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chiangrai United are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,525 against 1,477. On rating alone Chiangrai United would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 49 matches for Uthai Thani, against 1.27 over 49 for Chiangrai United.

  • Defences are close

    Uthai Thani concede 1.20 a game, Chiangrai United 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Uthai Thani matches, against 39% for Chiangrai United. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uthai Thani
Chiangrai United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.0
ELO
1524.6
49
ELO · Matches
49
1477.0
Current Team ELO
1524.6
1524.6
Current Opponent ELO
1477.0
-47.62
Current ELO Difference
47.62
0.43
Expected score
0.57
49
History Matches
49
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.54
Overperformance
51.44
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.18
PPG
1.33
28.6%
Win rate
32.7%
32.7%
Draw rate
34.7%
38.8%
Loss rate
32.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
1.00
36.0%
Win rate
15.4%
40.0%
Draw rate
53.8%
24.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
1.27
67.3%
Scoring rate
81.6%
51.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.42
72.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
52.0%
BTTS rate
80.8%
49
History Matches
49
1.31
Goals Mean
1.27
1.42
Goals Std
0.96
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.24
75.5%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.69
68.0%
Conceding rate
88.5%
49
History Matches
49
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.12
Conceded Std
1.36
24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.66
0.72
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
17
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
52.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.63
15
Trailing Matches
14
46.7%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.0
Rest days
181.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.15
74.00
Portability Score
87.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-47.62
PPG-0.14
GF0.04
GA-0.04
PPG0.48
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate30.4%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-13.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-47.62
Current Opponent ELO47.62
Current ELO Difference-95.24
Expected score-0.14
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Uthai Thani

L
Uthai Thani1–2Sukhothai FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Uthai Thani 41% · missed
W
Uthai Thani2–0Nakhon Pathom20 Oct · home
Pick: Uthai Thani 38% · hit
D
Rayong FC1–1Uthai Thani17 Oct · away
Pick: Uthai Thani 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chiangrai United

L
BG Pathum United2–0Chiangrai United24 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 63% · hit
L
Chiangrai United1–2Ratchaburi18 Oct · home
Pick: Ratchaburi 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United meet in Thai League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Uthai Thani win 33.8%, draw 27.8%, Chiangrai United win 38.4%. The pick is Chiangrai United win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.