ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Valencia II vs Lorca Deportiva

Valencia II Home · Elo 1,543
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lorca Deportiva Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lorca Deportiva win
Valencia II win
30.3%
Draw
33.1%
Lorca Deportiva winPick
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Valencia II history48 matches
Lorca Deportiva history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Lorca Deportiva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,543 against 1,519. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Valencia II score more

    1.54 goals a game over 48 matches for Valencia II, against 1.12 over 52 for Lorca Deportiva.

  • Lorca Deportiva concede fewer

    Valencia II concede 1.31 a game, Lorca Deportiva 0.87.

  • Valencia II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Valencia II matches, against 40% for Lorca Deportiva. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valencia II
Lorca Deportiva
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.2
ELO
1519.2
48
ELO · Matches
52
1543.2
Current Team ELO
1519.2
1519.2
Current Opponent ELO
1543.2
24.03
Current ELO Difference
-24.03
0.53
Expected score
0.47
48
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.71
Overperformance
51.41
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
2.10
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
52
1.48
PPG
1.67
37.5%
Win rate
48.1%
35.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
27.1%
Loss rate
28.8%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.85
PPG
1.40
53.8%
Win rate
40.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
1.12
79.2%
Scoring rate
67.3%
60.4%
BTTS rate
40.4%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.16
84.6%
Scoring rate
68.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
48
History Matches
52
1.54
Goals Mean
1.12
1.15
Goals Std
1.01
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
0.87
77.1%
Conceding rate
57.7%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.16
69.2%
Conceding rate
72.0%
48
History Matches
52
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.87
1.04
Conceded Std
0.94
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.36
0.86
Stability score
4.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
16
Lead Matches
15
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
10
38.5%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.3
Rest days
84.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.55
Portability PPG Range
1.30
64.43
Portability Score
43.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO24.03
PPG-0.19
GF0.43
GA0.45
PPG0.45
PPG1.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate17.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.98
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-3.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.38
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score20.98
Rest days104.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO24.03
Current Opponent ELO-24.03
Current ELO Difference48.06
Expected score0.07
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valencia II

D
Valencia II1–1Castellonense31 Oct · home
Pick: Castellonense 43% · missed
D
Orihuela1–1Valencia II24 Oct · away
Pick: Orihuela 54% · missed
W
Valencia II3–2Peña Deportiva4 Oct · home
Pick: Peña Deportiva 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lorca Deportiva

W
Lorca Deportiva2–0Poblense1 Nov · home
Pick: Poblense 37% · missed
L
Real Murcia II3–2Lorca Deportiva25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Murcia II 45% · hit
D
Lorca Deportiva2–2Atlético Baleares18 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Baleares 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Valencia II and Lorca Deportiva meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Valencia II win 30.3%, draw 33.1%, Lorca Deportiva win 36.6%. The pick is Lorca Deportiva win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.