ScoreProb
Liga 3 Portugal Round 9 2026

Vianense vs Leça

Vianense Home · Elo 1,552
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leça Away · Elo 1,608
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vianense win
Vianense winPick
42.5%
Draw
26.4%
Leça win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Vianense history50 matches
Leça history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vianense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leça are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,552. On rating alone Leça would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Leça score more

    1.62 goals a game over 50 matches for Vianense, against 1.82 over 56 for Leça.

  • Leça concede fewer

    Vianense concede 1.36 a game, Leça 1.16.

  • Vianense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Vianense matches, against 48% for Leça. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vianense
Leça
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.6
ELO
1608.2
50
ELO · Matches
56
1551.6
Current Team ELO
1608.2
1608.2
Current Opponent ELO
1551.6
-56.53
Current ELO Difference
56.53
0.42
Expected score
0.58
50
History Matches
56
0.04
Residual Mean
0.09
52.92
Overperformance
56.68
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
56
1.56
PPG
1.91
46.0%
Win rate
55.4%
18.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
19.6%
82.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
29
1.95
PPG
1.52
59.1%
Win rate
41.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
27.6%
22.7%
Loss rate
31.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
22
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.82
80.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
58.0%
BTTS rate
58.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.38
86.4%
Scoring rate
79.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
56
1.62
Goals Mean
1.82
1.28
Goals Std
1.45
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.16
72.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.34
54.5%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
56
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.21
Conceded Std
1.13
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.90
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.64
5.91
Stability score
9.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
21
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.86
14
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.96
Rest days
76.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.66
Portability PPG Range
1.82
68.76
Portability Score
44.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-56.53
PPG-0.35
GF-0.20
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.44
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate5.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-3.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.46
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-1.15
Portability Score24.35
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-56.53
Current Opponent ELO56.53
Current ELO Difference-113.1
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vianense

D
Guimaraes B2–2Vianense1 Nov · away
Pick: Guimaraes B 43% · missed
L
Vianense1–3São João Ver25 Oct · home
Pick: Vianense 54% · missed
W
Vianense1–0Leixoes17 Oct · home
Pick: Vianense 39% · hit
W
Vianense8–0Minas de Argozelo30 Aug · home
Pick: Vianense 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Leça

W
Leça2–0Varzim31 Oct · home
Pick: Leça 43% · hit
L
Pacos Ferreira1–0Leça23 Oct · away
Pick: Leça 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vianense and Leça meet in Liga 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vianense win 42.5%, draw 26.4%, Leça win 31.1%. The pick is Vianense win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.