ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

Vianés vs Calahorra

Vianés Home · Elo 1,484
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Calahorra Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Calahorra win
Vianés win
29.7%
Draw
26.1%
Calahorra winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Vianés history49 matches
Calahorra history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Calahorra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Calahorra are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,484. On rating alone Calahorra would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Calahorra score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 49 matches for Vianés, against 1.80 over 50 for Calahorra.

  • Calahorra concede fewer

    Vianés concede 1.33 a game, Calahorra 0.94.

  • Vianés games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Vianés matches, against 40% for Calahorra. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vianés
Calahorra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.2
ELO
1557.7
49
ELO · Matches
50
1484.2
Current Team ELO
1557.7
1557.7
Current Opponent ELO
1484.2
-73.43
Current ELO Difference
73.43
0.40
Expected score
0.60
49
History Matches
50
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.75
Overperformance
53.84
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
2.50
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
50
1.29
PPG
1.54
34.7%
Win rate
40.0%
24.5%
Draw rate
34.0%
40.8%
Loss rate
26.0%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.50
PPG
1.15
45.8%
Win rate
26.9%
12.5%
Draw rate
34.6%
41.7%
Loss rate
38.5%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.80
69.4%
Scoring rate
72.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.65
70.8%
Scoring rate
61.5%
41.7%
BTTS rate
38.5%
49
History Matches
50
1.08
Goals Mean
1.80
0.94
Goals Std
1.85
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
0.94
63.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.12
66.7%
Conceding rate
65.4%
49
History Matches
50
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.38
Conceded Std
1.05
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.31
1.92
Stability score
1.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
50
12
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
10
23.5%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.58
96.17
Portability Score
63.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-73.43
PPG-0.25
GF-0.72
GA0.39
PPG0.35
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.72
Goals Std-0.91
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score32.92
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-73.43
Current Opponent ELO73.43
Current ELO Difference-146.9
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vianés

L
Anguiano3–0Vianés1 Nov · away
Pick: Anguiano 38% · hit
L
Vianés1–3Haro Deportivo25 Oct · home
Pick: Haro Deportivo 41% · hit
L
Alfaro1–0Vianés18 Oct · away
Pick: Vianés 36% · missed
L
Agoncillo2–0Vianés4 Oct · away
Pick: Agoncillo 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Calahorra

W
Calahorra3–0Casalarreina1 Nov · home
Pick: Calahorra 67% · hit
W
Calahorra5–0Yagüe25 Oct · home
Pick: Calahorra 56% · hit
L
Anguiano3–0Calahorra18 Oct · away
Pick: Calahorra 40% · missed
L
Alfaro2–1Calahorra4 Oct · away
Pick: Calahorra 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vianés and Calahorra meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vianés win 29.7%, draw 26.1%, Calahorra win 44.2%. The pick is Calahorra win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.