ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa

Warta Poznań Home · Elo 1,546
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polonia Warszawa Away · Elo 1,543
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Warta Poznań win
Warta Poznań winPick
38.5%
Draw
22.9%
Polonia Warszawa win
38.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%

How much we know

Warta Poznań history69 matches
Polonia Warszawa history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Warta Poznań are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,546 against 1,543. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 69 matches for Warta Poznań, against 1.54 over 71 for Polonia Warszawa.

  • Defences are close

    Warta Poznań concede 1.32 a game, Polonia Warszawa 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Warta Poznań matches, against 59% for Polonia Warszawa. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Warta Poznań
Polonia Warszawa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.7
ELO
1542.5
69
ELO · Matches
71
1545.7
Current Team ELO
1542.5
1542.5
Current Opponent ELO
1545.7
3.17
Current ELO Difference
-3.17
0.50
Expected score
0.50
69
History Matches
71
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.76
Overperformance
51.46
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
71
1.42
PPG
1.59
39.1%
Win rate
45.1%
24.6%
Draw rate
23.9%
36.2%
Loss rate
31.0%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
39
1.46
PPG
1.64
42.9%
Win rate
46.2%
17.1%
Draw rate
25.6%
40.0%
Loss rate
28.2%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
35
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.54
78.3%
Scoring rate
78.9%
55.1%
BTTS rate
66.2%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.62
71.4%
Scoring rate
84.6%
48.6%
BTTS rate
69.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
69
History Matches
71
1.43
Goals Mean
1.54
1.16
Goals Std
1.18
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.34
68.1%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.23
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
71
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.15
Conceded Std
1.10
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
71
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.68
Stability score
3.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
70
22
Lead Matches
23
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.80
27
Trailing Matches
21
18.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
38
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.67
41.70
Portability Score
68.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.17
PPG-0.17
GF-0.10
GA-0.02
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.18
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.33
Portability Score-26.47
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO3.17
Current Opponent ELO-3.17
Current ELO Difference6.35
Expected score0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Warta Poznań

D
Podbeskidzie1–1Warta Poznań31 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Poznań 37% · missed
L
Warta Poznań0–1ŁKS Łódź26 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Poznań 40% · missed
W
Warta Poznań1–0Unia Skierniewice16 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Poznań 48% · hit
L
Miedz Legnica2–1Warta Poznań30 Aug · away
Pick: Miedz Legnica 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Polonia Warszawa

D
ŁKS Łódź1–1Polonia Warszawa2 Nov · away
Pick: ŁKS Łódź 44% · missed
W
Polonia Warszawa2–1Korona Kielce29 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Warszawa 40% · hit
D
Polonia Warszawa1–1Miedz Legnica23 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Warszawa 40% · missed
W
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0–1Polonia Warszawa17 Oct · away
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 43% · missed
L
Polonia Warszawa2–4Lechia Gdansk29 Aug · home
Pick: Polonia Warszawa 65% · missed

About this match

Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa meet in I Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Warta Poznań win 38.5%, draw 22.9%, Polonia Warszawa win 38.5%. The pick is Warta Poznań win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.2%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.