ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie

Arka Gdynia Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Podbeskidzie Away · Elo 1,622
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arka Gdynia win
Arka Gdynia winPick
46.4%
Draw
22.7%
Podbeskidzie win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Arka Gdynia history71 matches
Podbeskidzie history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arka Gdynia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Podbeskidzie are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,622 against 1,518. On rating alone Podbeskidzie would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Podbeskidzie score more

    1.35 goals a game over 71 matches for Arka Gdynia, against 1.82 over 71 for Podbeskidzie.

  • Defences are close

    Arka Gdynia concede 1.27 a game, Podbeskidzie 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Arka Gdynia matches, against 58% for Podbeskidzie. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arka Gdynia
Podbeskidzie
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.5
ELO
1621.6
71
ELO · Matches
71
1517.5
Current Team ELO
1621.6
1621.6
Current Opponent ELO
1517.5
-104.1
Current ELO Difference
104.1
0.35
Expected score
0.65
71
History Matches
71
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.82
Overperformance
56.06
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
71
1.51
PPG
1.77
42.3%
Win rate
49.3%
23.9%
Draw rate
29.6%
33.8%
Loss rate
21.1%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
38
1.95
PPG
1.50
55.0%
Win rate
39.5%
30.0%
Draw rate
31.6%
15.0%
Loss rate
28.9%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
40
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.82
69.0%
Scoring rate
85.9%
39.4%
BTTS rate
62.0%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.63
82.5%
Scoring rate
76.3%
47.5%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.35
Goals Mean
1.82
1.21
Goals Std
1.19
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.9%
43.7%
Scored 2+ rate
59.2%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.21
60.6%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.29
50.0%
Conceding rate
71.1%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
71
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.34
Conceded Std
1.16
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
71
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.34
Stability score
5.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
71
26
Lead Matches
17
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
22
4.8%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.70
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.01
Portability PPG Range
1.33
57.16
Portability Score
53.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-104.1
PPG-0.27
GF-0.46
GA0.06
PPG0.80
PPG0.45
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate16.9%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.47
Stability score-3.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.76
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score3.57
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-104.1
Current Opponent ELO104.1
Current ELO Difference-208.1
Expected score-0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arka Gdynia

D
Chrobry Głogów0–0Arka Gdynia3 Nov · away
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 42% · missed
L
Arka Gdynia1–2Stal Rzeszów29 Oct · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia 44% · missed
W
Arka Gdynia3–1Nieciecza24 Oct · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia 48% · hit
L
Lechia Gdansk2–1Arka Gdynia18 Oct · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia 49% · missed
D
Arka Gdynia1–1Polonia Bytom30 Aug · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia 55% · missed

Podbeskidzie

D
Podbeskidzie1–1Warta Poznań31 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Poznań 37% · missed
W
Podbeskidzie2–1Stal Rzeszów25 Oct · home
Pick: Podbeskidzie 64% · hit
L
ŁKS Łódź1–0Podbeskidzie18 Oct · away
Pick: ŁKS Łódź 44% · hit
L
Stal Rzeszów3–0Podbeskidzie1 Sep · away
Pick: Podbeskidzie 49% · missed
L
Puszcza Niepołomice2–0Podbeskidzie29 Aug · away
Pick: Podbeskidzie 41% · missed

About this match

Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie meet in I Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Arka Gdynia win 46.4%, draw 22.7%, Podbeskidzie win 30.8%. The pick is Arka Gdynia win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.