ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Weston-super-Mare vs Braintree

Weston-super-Mare Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Braintree Away · Elo 1,391
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Weston-super-Mare win
Weston-super-Mare winPick
57.9%
Draw
20.5%
Braintree win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Weston-super-Mare history90 matches
Braintree history93 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Weston-super-Mare are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Weston-super-Mare are rated 132 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,391. On rating alone Weston-super-Mare would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Weston-super-Mare score more

    1.33 goals a game over 90 matches for Weston-super-Mare, against 1.14 over 93 for Braintree.

  • Weston-super-Mare concede fewer

    Weston-super-Mare concede 1.13 a game, Braintree 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Weston-super-Mare matches, against 53% for Braintree. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Weston-super-Mare
Braintree
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.5
ELO
1391.1
90
ELO · Matches
93
1523.5
Current Team ELO
1391.1
1391.1
Current Opponent ELO
1523.5
132.4
Current ELO Difference
-132.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
90
History Matches
93
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.87
Overperformance
45.67
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
93
1.60
PPG
1.08
46.7%
Win rate
28.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
48.4%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
44
1.71
PPG
0.77
51.1%
Win rate
18.2%
17.8%
Draw rate
22.7%
31.1%
Loss rate
59.1%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
45
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.14
74.4%
Scoring rate
69.9%
43.3%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.14
75.6%
Scoring rate
72.7%
35.6%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
90
History Matches
93
1.33
Goals Mean
1.14
1.15
Goals Std
0.99
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.9%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.54
61.1%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.96
Goals against per game
2.00
53.3%
Conceding rate
88.6%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.67
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
90
History Matches
93
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.25
Conceded Std
1.33
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.1%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
93
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.99
Stability score
4.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
92
28
Lead Matches
24
96.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.74
22
Trailing Matches
26
22.7%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
92
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.92
74
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.01
10
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
7
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.67
53.13
Portability Score
46.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
93
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO132.4
PPG0.52
GF0.19
GA-0.40
PPG0.75
PPG0.94
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate35.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate3.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score0.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate25.6%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.58
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score6.64
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.28
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO132.4
Current Opponent ELO-132.4
Current ELO Difference264.8
Expected score0.36
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Weston-super-Mare

L
Dorking Wanderers2–0Weston-super-Mare31 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 40% · missed
L
Farnborough2–1Weston-super-Mare28 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 48% · missed
L
Ebbsfleet United6–1Weston-super-Mare17 Oct · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 43% · missed
D
Weston-super-Mare1–1Chelmsford City31 Aug · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 49% · missed
W
Hemel Hempstead Town1–3Weston-super-Mare29 Aug · away
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 39% · hit

Braintree

W
Braintree3–1Norwich City U213 Nov · home
Pick: Braintree 55% · hit
W
Braintree1–0Hampton & Richmond31 Oct · home
Pick: Braintree 52% · hit
W
Braintree2–1Dagenham & Redbridge27 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed
L
Farnham Town6–0Braintree24 Oct · away
Pick: Farnham Town 52% · hit
L
Braintree2–4West Ham United U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Braintree 49% · missed

About this match

Weston-super-Mare and Braintree meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Weston-super-Mare win 57.9%, draw 20.5%, Braintree win 21.6%. The pick is Weston-super-Mare win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.