ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Xerez Deportivo vs Dos Hermanas

Xerez Deportivo Home · Elo 1,458
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dos Hermanas Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Xerez Deportivo win
Xerez Deportivo winPick
46.0%
Draw
24.5%
Dos Hermanas win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Xerez Deportivo history54 matches
Dos Hermanas history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Xerez Deportivo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dos Hermanas are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,458. On rating alone Dos Hermanas would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Dos Hermanas score far more

    0.96 goals a game over 54 matches for Xerez Deportivo, against 1.95 over 39 for Dos Hermanas.

  • Defences are close

    Xerez Deportivo concede 1.28 a game, Dos Hermanas 1.21.

  • Dos Hermanas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Xerez Deportivo matches, against 72% for Dos Hermanas. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Xerez Deportivo
Dos Hermanas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.8
ELO
1537.5
54
ELO · Matches
39
1457.8
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1457.8
-79.69
Current ELO Difference
79.69
0.39
Expected score
0.61
54
History Matches
39
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
47.73
Overperformance
53.26
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
0.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
39
1.09
PPG
1.67
25.9%
Win rate
48.7%
31.5%
Draw rate
20.5%
42.6%
Loss rate
30.8%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.8%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
19
1.41
PPG
1.42
34.5%
Win rate
36.8%
37.9%
Draw rate
31.6%
27.6%
Loss rate
31.6%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
29
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
1.95
66.7%
Scoring rate
89.7%
51.9%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.74
69.0%
Scoring rate
89.5%
51.7%
BTTS rate
78.9%
54
History Matches
39
0.96
Goals Mean
1.95
0.88
Goals Std
1.22
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
24.1%
Scored 2+ rate
61.5%
3.7%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.21
74.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.53
65.5%
Conceding rate
84.2%
54
History Matches
39
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.06
Conceded Std
1.07
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
39
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.93
Stability score
5.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
21
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
9
28.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
91.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
22
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.27
Portability PPG Std
—
0.61
Portability PPG Range
—
64.88
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-79.69
PPG-0.57
GF-0.99
GA0.07
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate23.1%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate20.5%
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.99
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches15
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-3.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-16.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-79.69
Current Opponent ELO79.69
Current ELO Difference-159.4
Expected score-0.23
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Xerez Deportivo

W
Xerez Deportivo3–2Chiclana24 Oct · home
Pick: Xerez Deportivo 59% · hit
D
Recreativo Huelva1–1Xerez Deportivo4 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dos Hermanas

W
Bollullos0–1Dos Hermanas25 Oct · away
Pick: Bollullos 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Xerez Deportivo and Dos Hermanas meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Xerez Deportivo win 46.0%, draw 24.5%, Dos Hermanas win 29.5%. The pick is Xerez Deportivo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.