ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Yambol 1915 vs Sozopol

Yambol 1915 Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sozopol Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yambol 1915 win
Yambol 1915 winPick
56.3%
Draw
24.3%
Sozopol win
19.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%

How much we know

Yambol 1915 history55 matches
Sozopol history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Yambol 1915 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yambol 1915 are rated 90 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,514. On rating alone Yambol 1915 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Yambol 1915 score more

    1.91 goals a game over 55 matches for Yambol 1915, against 1.42 over 52 for Sozopol.

  • Yambol 1915 concede fewer

    Yambol 1915 concede 1.05 a game, Sozopol 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Yambol 1915 matches, against 54% for Sozopol. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yambol 1915
Sozopol
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.4
ELO
1513.6
55
ELO · Matches
52
1603.4
Current Team ELO
1513.6
1513.6
Current Opponent ELO
1603.4
89.78
Current ELO Difference
-89.78
0.63
Expected score
0.37
55
History Matches
52
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
56.86
Overperformance
50.71
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.30
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.95
PPG
1.44
58.2%
Win rate
42.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
17.3%
21.8%
Loss rate
40.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
2.29
PPG
0.93
71.4%
Win rate
22.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
51.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.42
87.3%
Scoring rate
67.3%
52.7%
BTTS rate
44.2%
2.29
Goals for per game
0.93
92.9%
Scoring rate
51.9%
53.6%
BTTS rate
37.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
52
1.91
Goals Mean
1.42
1.39
Goals Std
1.39
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
30.9%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.19
56.4%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.37
53.6%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
52
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.26
Conceded Std
1.14
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.5%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.88
Result entropy
0.94
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.89
11.78
Stability score
5.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
20
7
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
2
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
34
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.54
62.45
Portability Score
69.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO89.78
PPG0.50
GF0.49
GA-0.14
PPG0.33
PPG1.36
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate12.4%
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score5.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-6.77
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO89.78
Current Opponent ELO-89.78
Current ELO Difference179.6
Expected score0.25
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yambol 1915

L
Yambol 19152–3Levski Krumovgrad24 Oct · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 55% · missed
W
Botev Plovdiv II0–2Yambol 191521 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 59% · hit
L
Maritsa Milevo2–1Yambol 191517 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 40% · missed
L
Yambol 19150–5Hebar 19184 Oct · home
Pick: Hebar 1918 38% · hit
W
Yambol 19155–1Rodopa Smolyan29 Aug · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 49% · hit

Sozopol

W
Sozopol2–1Zagorets31 Oct · home
Pick: Sozopol 48% · hit
L
Gigant Saedinenie2–1Sozopol24 Oct · away
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 42% · hit
W
Sozopol3–1Dimitrovgrad29 Aug · home
Pick: Sozopol 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Yambol 1915 and Sozopol meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yambol 1915 win 56.3%, draw 24.3%, Sozopol win 19.4%. The pick is Yambol 1915 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.2%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.