ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Yate Town vs Gloucester City

Yate Town Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gloucester City Away · Elo 1,591
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yate Town win
Yate Town winPick
42.1%
Draw
26.5%
Gloucester City win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Yate Town history66 matches
Gloucester City history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Yate Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gloucester City are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,512. On rating alone Gloucester City would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Gloucester City score more

    1.45 goals a game over 66 matches for Yate Town, against 1.94 over 80 for Gloucester City.

  • Gloucester City concede fewer

    Yate Town concede 1.42 a game, Gloucester City 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Yate Town matches, against 59% for Gloucester City. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yate Town
Gloucester City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.6
ELO
1591.4
66
ELO · Matches
80
1511.6
Current Team ELO
1591.4
1591.4
Current Opponent ELO
1511.6
-79.82
Current ELO Difference
79.82
0.39
Expected score
0.61
66
History Matches
80
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.93
Overperformance
54.56
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
80
1.36
PPG
1.78
36.4%
Win rate
51.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
36.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.3%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
39
1.62
PPG
1.56
44.1%
Win rate
43.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
25.6%
26.5%
Loss rate
30.8%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
34
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.94
78.8%
Scoring rate
86.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.59
76.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
58.8%
BTTS rate
51.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
80
1.45
Goals Mean
1.94
1.18
Goals Std
1.50
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
55.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.15
80.3%
Conceding rate
67.5%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.18
73.5%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
80
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.03
Conceded Std
1.05
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
80
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.95
0.78
Stability score
6.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
79
18
Lead Matches
36
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.81
18
Trailing Matches
11
38.9%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
50
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
11
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.76
Portability PPG Range
1.25
58.20
Portability Score
55.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-79.82
PPG-0.41
GF-0.48
GA0.27
PPG1.00
PPG0.05
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-5.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score2.31
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-79.82
Current Opponent ELO79.82
Current ELO Difference-159.6
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yate Town

L
Uxbridge2–0Yate Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 51% · hit
D
Yate Town0–0Wimborne Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Yate Town 48% · missed
D
Yate Town1–1Sholing20 Oct · home
Pick: Yate Town 44% · missed
L
Malvern Town3–2Yate Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 46% · missed
L
Yate Town1–4Taunton Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Yate Town 47% · missed

Gloucester City

D
Gloucester City2–2Berkhamsted31 Oct · home
Pick: Gloucester City 61% · missed
L
Plymouth Parkway1–0Gloucester City27 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 42% · hit
D
Barrow0–0Gloucester City17 Oct · away
Pick: Barrow 40% · missed
L
Gloucester City1–2Evesham United31 Aug · home
Pick: Gloucester City 53% · missed
D
Havant & Wville3–3Gloucester City29 Aug · away
Pick: Gloucester City 49% · missed

About this match

Yate Town and Gloucester City meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yate Town win 42.1%, draw 26.5%, Gloucester City win 31.4%. The pick is Yate Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.