Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
Match result probability Model pick: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu winPick
52.3%
Draw
12.5%
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win
35.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.2%
No49.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%
How much we know
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu history40 matches
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor are rated 81 Elo points higher
Elo 1,491 against 1,409. On rating alone Bitlis Özgüzelderespor would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.10 goals a game over 40 matches for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, against 1.00 over 1 for Bitlis Özgüzelderespor.
-
Defences are close
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu concede 2.18 a game, Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 2.00.
-
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor games more often go over 2.5 goals
63% of Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu matches, against 100% for Bitlis Özgüzelderespor. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1409.2
ELO
1490.6
40
ELO · Matches
1
1409.2
Current Team ELO
1490.6
1490.6
Current Opponent ELO
1409.2
-81.41
Current ELO Difference
81.41
0.38
Expected score
0.62
40
History Matches
1
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.56
42.86
Overperformance
47.32
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.56
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
3.60
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
0.70
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
3.50
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
3.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
1
0.93
PPG
0.00
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
17.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
57.5%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
1
0.95
PPG
0.00
28.6%
Win rate
0.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
61.9%
Loss rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
21
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
45.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
42.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
23.8%
BTTS rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
1
1.10
Goals Mean
1.00
1.56
Goals Std
—
45.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.18
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.43
Goals against per game
2.00
71.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
1
2.18
Conceded Mean
2.00
2.07
Conceded Std
—
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.43
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
55.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
55.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
1
0.88
Result entropy
0.00
2.95
Goal Difference Std
—
11.73
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
37
Eligible Matches
1
9
Lead Matches
0
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.93
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
226.8
Rest days
416.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.36
Portability PPG Std
—
0.72
Portability PPG Range
—
58.04
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.41
PPG0.93
GF0.10
GA0.18
PPG0.95
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate55.0%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Failed-to-score rate57.1%
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.55
Scored 2+ rate27.5%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
History Matches39
Conceded Mean0.18
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.45
Conceded 3+ rate40.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
History Matches39
Result entropy0.88
Stability score-88.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.73
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches9
Trailing Matches16
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-190.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches14
Current Team ELO-81.41
Current Opponent ELO81.41
Current ELO Difference-162.8
Expected score-0.23
History Matches39
Residual Mean0.45
Overperformance-4.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
L
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu1–2Muş Sport Klübü27 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 73% · hit W
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu2–0Yozgat Bld Bozokspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 67% · missed W
Adanaspor0–3Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu17 Oct · away
Pick: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 56% · hit W
Osmaniyespor0–3Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu7 Oct · away
Pick: Osmaniyespor 66% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
W
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor4–0Talasgücü Belediyespor1 Nov · home
Pick: Talasgücü Belediyespor 50% · missed W
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor4–1Kayserispor29 Oct · home
Pick: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 36% · hit D
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor1–1Bitlis Özgüzelderespor24 Oct · away
Pick: Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 61% · missed D
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor1–1Yeşilyurt Belediyespor17 Oct · home
Pick: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 48% · missed W
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor6–0Silifke Belediyespor6 Oct · home
Pick: Silifke Belediyespor 52% · missed About this match
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu and Bitlis Özgüzelderespor meet in 3. Lig - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win 52.3%, draw 12.5%, Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win 35.2%. The pick is Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.