Fenerbahce U19 vs Liverpool U19
Fenerbahce U19
Full time
3–5
Half time 2–4
Wed 4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
Liverpool U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Liverpool U19 win
Fenerbahce U19 winPick
42.5%
Draw
20.7%
Liverpool U19 win Result
36.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickFenerbahce U19 win · 42.5%
What happenedLiverpool U19 win · we gave it 36.8%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 74.4%
What happenedOver · 8 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 58.3%
What happenedYes · 3–5
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Liverpool U19 win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
37%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
3'
GoalW. Wright · assist J. Upton
11'
Yellow cardF. Inglethorpe
Yellow cardE. Yilmaz
14' 15'
Penalty goalW. Wright
17'
Yellow cardO. O'Connor
GoalE. Sayar · assist C. Balta
18' 20'
GoalJ. Sonni-Lambie · assist F. Inglethorpe
28'
GoalF. Inglethorpe · assist W. Wright
GoalE. Sayar · assist A. Ekici
29' Yellow cardY. Korkmaz
55' 56'
SubstitutionJ. Sonni-Lambie off · E. Farkas on
SubstitutionC. Balta off · A. Demirbilek on
66' SubstitutionE. Yilmaz off · E. Ates on
66' GoalB. Yolacan
68' 69'
GoalW. Wright · assist L. Eden
Yellow cardA. Ekici
72' 74'
Yellow cardL. Eden
Yellow cardA. E. Fettahoglu
74' 75'
SubstitutionL. Eden off · R. Cowley on
Yellow cardE. Sancakli
78' SubstitutionA. Ekici off · G. Ekici on
85' SubstitutionE. Sancakli off · O. Kuscu on
85' 86'
SubstitutionA. Yeguo off · J. Bradshaw on
90'
Yellow cardJ. Bradshaw
Yellow cardR. Akgul
90' Red cardA. Demirbilek
90+3' 90+4'
Yellow cardP. Cisse
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%
How much we know
Fenerbahce U19 history1 match
Liverpool U19 history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–5Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Fenerbahce U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,508 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Fenerbahce U19 score far more
4.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Fenerbahce U19, against 1.38 over 8 for Liverpool U19.
-
Fenerbahce U19 concede fewer
Fenerbahce U19 concede 1.00 a game, Liverpool U19 2.13.
-
Fenerbahce U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals
100% of Fenerbahce U19 matches, against 63% for Liverpool U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fenerbahce U19
Liverpool U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1508.2
ELO
1505.3
1
ELO · Matches
8
1508.2
Current Team ELO
1505.3
1505.3
Current Opponent ELO
1508.2
2.89
Current ELO Difference
-2.89
0.50
Expected score
0.50
1
History Matches
8
0.50
Residual Mean
0.01
52.38
Overperformance
50.29
0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.20
4.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1
Matches
8
3.00
PPG
1.38
4.00
Goals for per game
1.38
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
100.0%
Win rate
37.5%
4.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.38
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.13
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
8
3.00
PPG
1.38
100.0%
Win rate
37.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
1
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
4.00
Goals for per game
1.38
100.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1
History Matches
8
4.00
Goals Mean
1.38
—
Goals Std
1.58
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
100.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
4.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
100.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1
History Matches
8
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.13
—
Conceded Std
1.90
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
8
0.00
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
2.33
100.0
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
8
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
—
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
73.88
Rest days
273.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
7
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO2.89
PPG1.63
GF2.63
GA-1.13
PPG1.60
PPG1.80
PPG1.63
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-7
Goals Mean2.63
Scored 1+ rate37.5%
Scored 2+ rate62.5%
Scored 3+ rate87.5%
Venue Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.63
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-1.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Conceded 2+ rate-0.63
Conceded 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.13
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.99
Stability score98.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-199.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches-7
Current Team ELO2.89
Current Opponent ELO-2.89
Current ELO Difference5.79
Expected score0.01
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.49
Overperformance2.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.49
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fenerbahce U19
L
Fenerbahce U191–3Slavia Praha U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahce U19 43% · missed L
Aston Villa U192–1Fenerbahce U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Aston Villa U19 60% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Liverpool U19
D
Liverpool U190–0Villarreal U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal U19 44% · missed W
LASK U192–4Liverpool U1914 Oct · away
Pick: LASK U19 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Fenerbahce U19 and Liverpool U19 finished 3–5 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–4 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Fenerbahce U19 win 42.5%, draw 20.7%, Liverpool U19 win 36.8%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.