ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

Dinamo Zagreb U19 vs Qarabağ U19

Dinamo Zagreb U19 Home · Elo 1,502
Full time
7–0
Half time 5–0
Wed 4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
Qarabağ U19 Away · Elo 1,448
Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivic Referee: L. Thomas Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Dinamo Zagreb U19 win
Dinamo Zagreb U19 winPick Result
63.6%
Draw
15.0%
Qarabağ U19 win
21.4%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

2 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickDinamo Zagreb U19 win · 63.6%
What happenedDinamo Zagreb U19 win · we gave it 63.6%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 71.8%
What happenedOver · 7 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 50.3%
What happenedNo · 7–0
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: Dinamo Zagreb U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

64%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.6
on average
A pick at 64% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

SubstitutionP. Nemet off · F. Gracanin on
19'
GoalJ. Benkotic · assist N. Radnic
24'
GoalL. Trupcevic · assist L. Radic
34'
GoalK. Bozhkov · assist L. Radic
39'
GoalR. Ban · assist K. Bozhkov
45+1'
GoalK. Bozhkov
45+4'
SubstitutionK. Bozhkov off · N. Zeljkovic on
46'
Own goalR. Teymurov
54'
SubstitutionN. Radnic off · M. Hlavaty on
58'
58'
SubstitutionV. Chidioke off · A. Ibrahim on
SubstitutionL. Trupcevic off · L. Kadic on
59'
61'
Yellow cardA. Gazibayov
SubstitutionJ. Benkotic off · S. Tejeda on
70'
GoalL. Radic · assist N. Zeljkovic
76'
77'
SubstitutionU. Gurbanli off · M. Alishanli on
87'
SubstitutionA. Valiyev off · J. Mammadov on
87'
SubstitutionA. Gazibayov off · I. Hajiyev on
87'
SubstitutionA. Jabbarli off · A. Gulenc on
90'
Yellow cardI. Hajiyev

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%

How much we know

Dinamo Zagreb U19 history1 match
Qarabağ U19 history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 7–0Two of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Dinamo Zagreb U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Zagreb U19 are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,448. On rating alone Dinamo Zagreb U19 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Zagreb U19 score far more

    2.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Dinamo Zagreb U19, against 0.17 over 6 for Qarabağ U19.

  • Dinamo Zagreb U19 concede fewer

    Dinamo Zagreb U19 concede 2.00 a game, Qarabağ U19 5.00.

  • Dinamo Zagreb U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Dinamo Zagreb U19 matches, against 83% for Qarabağ U19. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dinamo Zagreb U19
Qarabağ U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.8
ELO
1447.8
1
ELO · Matches
6
1501.8
Current Team ELO
1447.8
1447.8
Current Opponent ELO
1501.8
54.05
Current ELO Difference
-54.05
0.58
Expected score
0.42
1
History Matches
6
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.43
50.00
Overperformance
40.04
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.43
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
2.00
Goals against per game
4.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.17
2.00
Goals against per game
5.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.17
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.37
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
5.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.08
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
0
Matches
3
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
0
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
0.17
100.0%
Scoring rate
16.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
—
Goals for per game
0.33
—
Scoring rate
33.3%
—
BTTS rate
33.3%
1
History Matches
6
2.00
Goals Mean
0.17
—
Goals Std
0.37
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
16.7%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
5.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
—
Goals against per game
4.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
6
2.00
Conceded Mean
5.00
—
Conceded Std
2.08
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
83.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
83.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
83.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
6
0.00
Result entropy
0.00
—
Goal Difference Std
1.95
100.0
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points Retention
1
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
0
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
2.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
2.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.33
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.17
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
630.0
Rest days
329.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0
Long Rest History Matches
5
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO54.05
PPG1.00
GF1.83
GA-3.00
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.83
History Matches-3
History Matches-5
Goals Mean1.83
Scored 1+ rate83.3%
Scored 2+ rate100.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.83
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-3.00
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-3.00
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean2.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-2.67
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days300.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches-5
Current Team ELO54.05
Current Opponent ELO-54.05
Current ELO Difference108.1
Expected score0.15
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.43
Overperformance9.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dinamo Zagreb U19

W
Qarabağ U191–2Dinamo Zagreb U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb U19 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Qarabağ U19

L
Qarabağ U191–2Dinamo Zagreb U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb U19 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Dinamo Zagreb U19 and Qarabağ U19 finished 7–0 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 5–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Dinamo Zagreb U19 win 63.6%, draw 15.0%, Qarabağ U19 win 21.4%. Two of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.