Lens U19 vs Como U19
Lens U19
LIVE · 88'
2–1
Half time 2–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Como U19
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Como U19 win
Lens U19 win
32.7%
Draw
33.0%
Como U19 winPick
34.3%
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalI. Grini · assist D. Fernoc
8' Yellow cardM. Seddik
17' GoalI. Grini
38' 44'
GoalR. Cassano
SubstitutionN. Manoir off · J. Rocolat on
46' 60'
SubstitutionL. de Paula off · A. Tigano on
SubstitutionM. Seddik off · B. Diakite on
63' SubstitutionS. Dioumanara off · W. Sahli on
63' 74'
SubstitutionC. Mazzara off · A. Cauli on
74'
SubstitutionA. Asfour off · L. Epifani on
75'
Yellow cardF. Andrealli
SubstitutionD. Fernoc off · L. Robbe on
77' Our pre-match picks, right now
Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.
Match resultPick: Como U19 win · 34.3%
Behind: trailing 2–1 Both teams to scorePick: No · 51.7%
Already missed: both have scored Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 54.1%
Already over 2.5 The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.
Both teams to score
Yes48.3%
No51.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%
How much we know
Lens U19 history0 matches
Como U19 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Como U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Como U19 are rated 98 Elo points higher
Elo 1,598 against 1,500. On rating alone Como U19 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lens U19
Como U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1598.1
0
ELO · Matches
48
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1598.1
1598.1
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-98.13
Current ELO Difference
98.13
0.36
Expected score
0.64
0
History Matches
48
—
Residual Mean
0.10
—
Overperformance
56.97
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.80
—
Goals for per game
1.20
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.40
—
Goals for per game
1.50
—
Goals against per game
1.70
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
48
—
PPG
2.02
—
Win rate
60.4%
—
Draw rate
20.8%
—
Loss rate
18.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
—
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
24
—
PPG
2.29
—
Win rate
70.8%
—
Draw rate
16.7%
—
Loss rate
12.5%
—
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
—
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
0
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
2.23
—
Scoring rate
83.3%
—
BTTS rate
47.9%
—
Goals for per game
2.50
—
Scoring rate
87.5%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
48
—
Goals Mean
2.23
—
Goals Std
1.76
—
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
—
Scored 2+ rate
58.3%
—
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
—
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.04
—
Conceding rate
58.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
58.3%
0
History Matches
48
—
Conceded Mean
1.04
—
Conceded Std
1.14
—
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
48
—
Result entropy
0.86
—
Goal Difference Std
2.24
—
Stability score
13.97
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
47
0
Lead Matches
17
—
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.86
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
30.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.36
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
170.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
30
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
0
Long Rest History Matches
17
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.24
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.14
—
Portability PPG Range
0.28
—
Portability Score
77.99
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-98.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-48
History Matches-24
History Matches-48
History Matches-48
History Matches-48
Eligible Matches-47
Lead Matches-17
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-47
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-30
Long Rest History Matches-17
Current Team ELO-98.13
Current Opponent ELO98.13
Current ELO Difference-196.3
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-48
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lens U19
L
Club Brugge U194–2Lens U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge U19 57% · hit W
Lens U193–2Sporting CP U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP U19 34% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Como U19
W
Como U192–1Manchester United U1921 Oct · home
Pick: Como U19 69% · hit L
Feyenoord U191–0Como U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Como U19 46% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lens U19 and Como U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at CTS La Gaillette. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Lens U19 win 32.7%, draw 33.0%, Como U19 win 34.3%. The pick is Como U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.