ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World League Phase - 4 2026

Viking U19 vs Sabah U19

Viking U19 Home · Elo 1,550
LIVE · 90+3'
5–0
Half time 4–0
Wed 4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
Sabah U19 Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: L. Graagaard Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Viking U19 win
Viking U19 winPick
69.2%
Draw
14.2%
Sabah U19 win
16.6%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalJ. Middelthon · assist N. Al-Mabhouh
3'
GoalK. Frimpong · assist N. Al-Mabhouh
6'
GoalH. Kvelvane
32'
SubstitutionK. Frimpong off · M. Hagen on
37'
39'
Yellow cardR. Ayyubov
Penalty goalH. Kvelvane
40'
46'
SubstitutionT. Ahmadov off · A. Aliyev on
GoalM. Hagen
48'
61'
SubstitutionE. Feyzullayev off · A. E. Bakare on
61'
SubstitutionU. Salimov off · N. Karimov on
SubstitutionS. Bakken off · A. Bjornsen on
64'
SubstitutionS. Tveiten off · C. Salvesen-Svenning on
64'
Penalty missedH. Kvelvane
67'
72'
SubstitutionA. Huseynov off · N. Zeynalli on
SubstitutionA. Tveit off · M. Oftedal on
77'
SubstitutionM. Johansen off · A. Rahim on
77'
81'
SubstitutionH. Samadov off · S. Gaibkhanov on

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Viking U19 win · 69.2%
Ahead: 5–0
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 56.1%
Needs a goal from Sabah U19
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 79.8%
Already over 2.5
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.8%
Under 2.520.2%

How much we know

Viking U19 history18 matches
Sabah U19 history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Viking U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viking U19 are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,480. On rating alone Viking U19 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Viking U19 score far more

    2.89 goals a game over 18 matches for Viking U19, against 0.50 over 2 for Sabah U19.

  • Viking U19 concede fewer

    Viking U19 concede 1.78 a game, Sabah U19 3.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    94% of Viking U19 matches, against 100% for Sabah U19. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viking U19
Sabah U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.9
ELO
1480.5
18
ELO · Matches
2
1549.9
Current Team ELO
1480.5
1480.5
Current Opponent ELO
1549.9
69.47
Current ELO Difference
-69.47
0.60
Expected score
0.40
18
History Matches
2
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.49
56.52
Overperformance
45.56
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.49
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.60
PPG
0.00
3.80
Goals for per game
0.50
2.00
Goals against per game
3.50
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.70
PPG
0.00
2.90
Goals for per game
0.50
2.10
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
2
1.94
PPG
0.00
61.1%
Win rate
0.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
100.0%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
94.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
1
1.89
PPG
0.00
55.6%
Win rate
0.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
9
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.89
Goals for per game
0.50
94.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
77.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
88.9%
Scoring rate
0.0%
77.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
18
History Matches
2
2.89
Goals Mean
0.50
1.49
Goals Std
0.50
94.4%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
83.3%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
61.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.78
Goals against per game
3.50
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.89
Goals against per game
5.00
88.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
18
History Matches
2
1.78
Conceded Mean
3.50
1.13
Conceded Std
1.50
61.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
5.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
2
0.82
Result entropy
0.00
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.00
18.00
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
2
10
Lead Matches
0
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.73
Lead Points Retention
—
4
Trailing Matches
2
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
1.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.50
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.02
Rest days
364.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Long Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.06
Portability PPG Std
—
0.11
Portability PPG Range
—
90.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO69.47
PPG1.94
GF2.39
GA-1.72
PPG1.89
PPG2.60
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.89
History Matches16
Goals Mean2.39
Goals Std0.99
Scored 1+ rate44.4%
Scored 2+ rate83.3%
Scored 3+ rate61.1%
Venue Goals Mean3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-1.72
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.39
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-3.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches16
Result entropy0.82
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-82.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean1.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.67
Second Half Goals For Mean1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-280.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO69.47
Current Opponent ELO-69.47
Current ELO Difference138.9
Expected score0.20
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.63
Overperformance10.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.55

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viking U19

W
Aston Villa U190–1Viking U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Viking U19 48% · hit
W
Viking U192–0Bayern München U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München U19 56% · missed
L
Stuttgart U195–0Viking U199 Sep · away
Pick: Stuttgart U19 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sabah U19

L
Sabah U190–2Borussia Dortmund U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 61% · hit
L
Sabah U190–3Slavia Praha U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha U19 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Viking U19 and Sabah U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Viking U19 win 69.2%, draw 14.2%, Sabah U19 win 16.6%. The pick is Viking U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.8%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.