1899 Hoffenheim W vs SC Freiburg W
Match result probability Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W win
1899 Hoffenheim W winPick
50.9%
Draw
22.9%
SC Freiburg W win
26.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
No41.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%
How much we know
1899 Hoffenheim W history41 matches
SC Freiburg W history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours 1899 Hoffenheim W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why 1899 Hoffenheim W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
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1899 Hoffenheim W are rated 55 Elo points higher
Elo 1,556 against 1,501. On rating alone 1899 Hoffenheim W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
1899 Hoffenheim W score more
2.12 goals a game over 41 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim W, against 1.58 over 38 for SC Freiburg W.
-
1899 Hoffenheim W concede fewer
1899 Hoffenheim W concede 1.29 a game, SC Freiburg W 1.63.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
66% of 1899 Hoffenheim W matches, against 61% for SC Freiburg W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Freiburg W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1555.6
ELO
1500.6
41
ELO · Matches
38
1555.6
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1555.6
54.98
Current ELO Difference
-54.98
0.58
Expected score
0.42
41
History Matches
38
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
54.66
Overperformance
49.70
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals 90
41
Matches
38
1.71
PPG
1.39
53.7%
Win rate
39.5%
9.8%
Draw rate
21.1%
36.6%
Loss rate
39.5%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
39.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
20
1.71
PPG
1.00
52.4%
Win rate
25.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
21
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.12
Goals for per game
1.58
80.5%
Scoring rate
81.6%
48.8%
BTTS rate
60.5%
2.24
Goals for per game
1.20
76.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.6%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
38
2.12
Goals Mean
1.58
1.84
Goals Std
1.33
80.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
39.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.63
63.4%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.65
61.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
38
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.42
Conceded Std
1.37
36.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.9%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
36.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
41
History Matches
38
0.85
Result entropy
0.97
2.44
Goal Difference Std
2.04
15.44
Stability score
3.34
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
41
Eligible Matches
38
20
Lead Matches
12
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.81
4
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.96
Rest days
82.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
16
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.49
87.73
Portability Score
67.01
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
41
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.98
PPG0.31
GF0.54
GA-0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG0.71
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.54
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.49
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score12.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score20.72
Rest days0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO54.98
Current Opponent ELO-54.98
Current ELO Difference110.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
1899 Hoffenheim W
L
VfL Wolfsburg W8–01899 Hoffenheim W2 Nov · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 60% · hit W
1899 Hoffenheim W3–1Mainz 05 W25 Oct · home
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 52% · hit W
Nürnberg W1–21899 Hoffenheim W4 Oct · away
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
SC Freiburg W
L
SC Freiburg W0–4Nürnberg W7 Nov · home
Pick: SC Freiburg W 60% · missed W
SC Freiburg W4–0Carl Zeiss Jena W1 Nov · home
Pick: SC Freiburg W 45% · hit L
Werder Bremen W4–3SC Freiburg W25 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen W 54% · hit L
SC Freiburg W0–3RB Leipzig W16 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg W 57% · missed W
SC Freiburg W1–0Union Berlin W29 Aug · home
Pick: Union Berlin W 43% · missed About this match
1899 Hoffenheim W and SC Freiburg W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Dietmar-Hopp Stadion, Sinsheim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: 1899 Hoffenheim W win 50.9%, draw 22.9%, SC Freiburg W win 26.2%. The pick is 1899 Hoffenheim W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.