VfL Wolfsburg W vs Bayern Munich W
Match result probability Model pick: VfL Wolfsburg W win
VfL Wolfsburg W winPick
44.5%
Draw
19.7%
Bayern Munich W win
35.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
No40.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.577.3%
Under 2.522.7%
How much we know
VfL Wolfsburg W history57 matches
Bayern Munich W history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours VfL Wolfsburg W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:55 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:55 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why VfL Wolfsburg W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bayern Munich W are rated 139 Elo points higher
Elo 1,780 against 1,642. On rating alone Bayern Munich W would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Bayern Munich W score more
2.53 goals a game over 57 matches for VfL Wolfsburg W, against 2.91 over 58 for Bayern Munich W.
-
Bayern Munich W concede fewer
VfL Wolfsburg W concede 1.47 a game, Bayern Munich W 0.81.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
75% of VfL Wolfsburg W matches, against 76% for Bayern Munich W. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern Munich W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1641.7
ELO
1780.2
57
ELO · Matches
58
1641.7
Current Team ELO
1780.2
1780.2
Current Opponent ELO
1641.7
-138.6
Current ELO Difference
138.6
0.31
Expected score
0.69
57
History Matches
58
0.12
Residual Mean
0.24
58.80
Overperformance
68.05
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
3.00
3.00
Goals for per game
2.80
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.90
Goals for per game
2.30
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
58
1.93
PPG
2.62
59.6%
Win rate
84.5%
14.0%
Draw rate
8.6%
26.3%
Loss rate
6.9%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
75.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.9%
59.6%
Over 3.5 rate
53.4%
2.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
28
2.22
PPG
2.61
70.4%
Win rate
85.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
3.6%
18.5%
Loss rate
10.7%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
89.3%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
60.7%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.53
Goals for per game
2.91
86.0%
Scoring rate
96.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.56
Goals for per game
3.07
96.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
81.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
8.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
58
2.53
Goals Mean
2.91
2.19
Goals Std
1.42
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
96.6%
63.2%
Scored 2+ rate
81.0%
42.1%
Scored 3+ rate
65.5%
2.56
Venue Goals Mean
3.07
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.47
Goals against per game
0.81
75.4%
Conceding rate
46.6%
1.48
Goals against per game
0.96
85.2%
Conceding rate
42.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
58
1.47
Conceded Mean
0.81
1.34
Conceded Std
1.25
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.0%
22.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.2%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
53.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
53.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
3.4%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
53.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
58
0.85
Result entropy
0.49
2.82
Goal Difference Std
2.11
14.88
Stability score
51.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
58
26
Lead Matches
31
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
96.8%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.97
17
Trailing Matches
9
29.4%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.72
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.20
Rest days
85.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.41
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
6.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.00
64.65
Portability Score
55.47
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-138.6
PPG-0.69
GF-0.39
GA0.66
PPG0.00
PPG-0.38
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate10.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std0.77
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.41
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score-36.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.05
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.37
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score9.18
Rest days-0.82
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.11
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO-138.6
Current Opponent ELO138.6
Current ELO Difference-277.1
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
VfL Wolfsburg W
W
Eintracht Frankfurt W1–3VfL Wolfsburg W6 Nov · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 53% · hit W
VfL Wolfsburg W8–01899 Hoffenheim W2 Nov · home
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 60% · hit W
VfL Wolfsburg W3–0FC Koln W24 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 73% · hit W
Mainz 05 W0–5VfL Wolfsburg W18 Oct · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 62% · hit W
VfL Wolfsburg W2–1Hamburger SV W4 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 74% · hit Bayern Munich W
W
Bayern Munich W3–1Werder Bremen W6 Nov · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 78% · hit W
Bayern Munich W1–0Bayer Leverkusen W1 Nov · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 67% · hit D
Bayern Munich W2–2Real Madrid W28 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 42% · missed W
RB Leipzig W1–5Bayern Munich W23 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Munich W 69% · hit W
Bayern Munich W5–0Stuttgart W19 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 79% · hit About this match
VfL Wolfsburg W and Bayern Munich W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:55 UTC. The match is played at AOK Stadion, Wolfsburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: VfL Wolfsburg W win 44.5%, draw 19.7%, Bayern Munich W win 35.8%. The pick is VfL Wolfsburg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.3%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.