ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Aarhus vs SC Braga

Aarhus Home · Elo 1,632
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
SC Braga Away · Elo 1,678
Cepheus Park, Randers Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Braga win
Aarhus win
30.6%
Draw
26.3%
SC Braga winPick
43.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Aarhus history73 matches
SC Braga history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SC Braga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Braga are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,678 against 1,632. On rating alone SC Braga would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.85 goals a game over 73 matches for Aarhus, against 1.81 over 90 for SC Braga.

  • SC Braga concede fewer

    Aarhus concede 1.32 a game, SC Braga 0.86.

  • Aarhus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Aarhus matches, against 53% for SC Braga. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aarhus
SC Braga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.1
ELO
1678.0
73
ELO · Matches
90
1632.1
Current Team ELO
1678.0
1678.0
Current Opponent ELO
1632.1
-45.85
Current ELO Difference
45.85
0.43
Expected score
0.57
73
History Matches
90
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
57.53
Overperformance
57.76
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
90
1.77
PPG
1.97
50.7%
Win rate
56.7%
24.7%
Draw rate
26.7%
24.7%
Loss rate
16.7%
87.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
46
2.00
PPG
1.72
59.0%
Win rate
47.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
28.3%
17.9%
Loss rate
23.9%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
39
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.81
90.4%
Scoring rate
88.9%
72.6%
BTTS rate
48.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.52
89.7%
Scoring rate
84.8%
64.1%
BTTS rate
52.2%
—
Goals for per game
1.50
—
Scoring rate
75.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
73
History Matches
90
1.85
Goals Mean
1.81
1.29
Goals Std
1.27
90.4%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
0.86
78.1%
Conceding rate
54.4%
1.13
Goals against per game
0.93
66.7%
Conceding rate
58.7%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
73
History Matches
90
1.32
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.05
Conceded Std
0.93
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
45.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
90
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.58
5.80
Stability score
11.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
88
35
Lead Matches
42
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
15
Trailing Matches
18
40.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.24
Rest days
84.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
39
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
2.50
—
Win rate
75.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
2.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
7
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.26
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.76
39.68
Portability Score
65.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-45.85
PPG-0.20
GF0.04
GA0.46
PPG0.28
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate13.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-5.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.82
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate8.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.49
Portability Score-25.90
Rest days-9.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-45.85
Current Opponent ELO45.85
Current ELO Difference-91.70
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aarhus

L
Brondby2–0Aarhus1 Nov · away
Pick: Brondby 55% · hit
W
Roskilde1–2Aarhus28 Oct · away
Pick: Aarhus 48% · hit
W
Aarhus2–1Viborg25 Oct · home
Pick: Viborg 43% · missed
D
Aarhus1–1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 44% · missed
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Aarhus18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 62% · missed

SC Braga

W
SC Braga3–0Famalicao1 Nov · home
Pick: SC Braga 54% · hit
L
Nacional1–0SC Braga25 Oct · away
Pick: SC Braga 40% · missed
W
SC Braga2–0Gent22 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga 57% · hit
L
SC Braga1–2GIL Vicente19 Oct · home
Pick: SC Braga 48% · missed
L
FC Copenhagen3–0SC Braga15 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 46% · hit

About this match

Aarhus and SC Braga meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Cepheus Park, Randers. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Aarhus win 30.6%, draw 26.3%, SC Braga win 43.1%. The pick is SC Braga win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.