ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty

Atalanta Home · Elo 1,606
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kairat Almaty Away · Elo 1,640
New Balance Arena, Bergamo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kairat Almaty win
Atalanta win
33.0%
Draw
28.3%
Kairat Almaty winPick
38.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Atalanta history83 matches
Kairat Almaty history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Kairat Almaty are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kairat Almaty are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,606. On rating alone Kairat Almaty would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 83 matches for Atalanta, against 1.55 over 84 for Kairat Almaty.

  • Kairat Almaty concede fewer

    Atalanta concede 1.13 a game, Kairat Almaty 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Atalanta matches, against 49% for Kairat Almaty. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atalanta
Kairat Almaty
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.5
ELO
1640.4
83
ELO · Matches
84
1606.5
Current Team ELO
1640.4
1640.4
Current Opponent ELO
1606.5
-33.95
Current ELO Difference
33.95
0.45
Expected score
0.55
83
History Matches
84
0.07
Residual Mean
0.07
55.41
Overperformance
55.80
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
84
1.57
PPG
1.71
43.4%
Win rate
50.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
21.4%
30.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
50.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
47
1.60
PPG
1.43
44.2%
Win rate
40.4%
27.9%
Draw rate
21.3%
27.9%
Loss rate
38.3%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.7%
46.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
43
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.51
Goals for per game
1.55
77.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
49.4%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.28
72.1%
Scoring rate
68.1%
51.2%
BTTS rate
53.2%
83
History Matches
84
1.51
Goals Mean
1.55
1.27
Goals Std
1.32
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.2%
19.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.00
65.1%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.19
67.4%
Conceding rate
74.5%
83
History Matches
84
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Conceded Std
1.13
27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
84
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.82
2.09
Stability score
5.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
82
27
Lead Matches
30
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
19
45.5%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
22.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.96
Rest days
82.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
59
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.92
Portability PPG Range
2.12
46.81
Portability Score
39.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-33.95
PPG-0.15
GF-0.04
GA0.13
PPG0.18
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-3.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate24.4%
Trailing Win Rate22.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score6.97
Rest days-8.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO-33.95
Current Opponent ELO33.95
Current ELO Difference-67.90
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atalanta

L
Atalanta0–3Parma2 Nov · home
Pick: Atalanta 64% · missed
D
Fiorentina2–2Atalanta29 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina 38% · missed
D
Atalanta4–4Frosinone25 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta 63% · missed
L
Ajax2–0Atalanta22 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 44% · hit
L
AC Milan3–2Atalanta18 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 37% · hit

Kairat Almaty

D
Kairat Almaty1–1Altay31 Oct · home
Pick: Kairat Almaty 68% · missed
D
Aktobe2–2Kairat Almaty25 Oct · away
Pick: Kairat Almaty 45% · missed
L
Kairat Almaty1–5Panathinaikos22 Oct · home
Pick: Kairat Almaty 47% · missed
W
Kairat Almaty5–0Irtysh18 Oct · home
Pick: Kairat Almaty 66% · hit
D
Riga1–1Kairat Almaty15 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 52% · missed

About this match

Atalanta and Kairat Almaty meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atalanta win 33.0%, draw 28.3%, Kairat Almaty win 38.7%. The pick is Kairat Almaty win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.