ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes

FK Crvena Zvezda Home · Elo 1,711
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inter Club d'Escaldes Away · Elo 1,661
Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Crvena Zvezda win
FK Crvena Zvezda winPick
51.4%
Draw
26.2%
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
22.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.528.9%

How much we know

FK Crvena Zvezda history100 matches
Inter Club d'Escaldes history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FK Crvena Zvezda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FK Crvena Zvezda are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,711 against 1,661. On rating alone FK Crvena Zvezda would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.45 goals a game over 100 matches for FK Crvena Zvezda, against 2.30 over 53 for Inter Club d'Escaldes.

  • Defences are close

    FK Crvena Zvezda concede 0.98 a game, Inter Club d'Escaldes 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of FK Crvena Zvezda matches, against 64% for Inter Club d'Escaldes. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Crvena Zvezda
Inter Club d'Escaldes
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1711.3
ELO
1660.6
100
ELO · Matches
53
1711.3
Current Team ELO
1660.6
1660.6
Current Opponent ELO
1711.3
50.72
Current ELO Difference
-50.72
0.57
Expected score
0.43
100
History Matches
53
0.10
Residual Mean
0.14
58.55
Overperformance
60.38
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
2.60
Goals for per game
2.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
100
Matches
53
2.23
PPG
2.17
69.0%
Win rate
66.0%
16.0%
Draw rate
18.9%
15.0%
Loss rate
15.1%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
51
Matches
28
2.29
PPG
1.96
70.6%
Win rate
60.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
11.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
51.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
51
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.45
Goals for per game
2.30
89.0%
Scoring rate
94.3%
56.0%
BTTS rate
56.6%
2.84
Goals for per game
2.39
94.1%
Scoring rate
96.4%
58.8%
BTTS rate
60.7%
—
Goals for per game
3.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
100
History Matches
53
2.45
Goals Mean
2.30
1.65
Goals Std
1.70
89.0%
Scored 1+ rate
94.3%
68.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.3%
44.0%
Scored 3+ rate
35.8%
2.84
Venue Goals Mean
2.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
0.98
64.0%
Conceding rate
58.5%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.25
64.7%
Conceding rate
60.7%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
100
History Matches
53
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.98
0.96
Conceded Std
1.09
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.5%
9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
11.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.7%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
3.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
11.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.7%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
3.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
100
History Matches
53
0.76
Result entropy
0.80
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.14
24.10
Stability score
20.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
100
Eligible Matches
52
58
Lead Matches
24
91.4%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
5
43.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
100
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.37
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.03
Rest days
84.07
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
65
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.35
19
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
11
Competition Season Count
9
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.00
48.55
Portability Score
57.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
100
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO50.72
PPG0.06
GF0.15
GA0.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches47
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches47
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate5.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches47
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches47
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score3.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches48
Lead Matches34
Lead Win Rate3.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate3.8%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches48
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-9.05
Rest days-10.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches14
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches39
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO50.72
Current Opponent ELO-50.72
Current ELO Difference101.4
Expected score0.14
History Matches47
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Crvena Zvezda

W
Jedinstvo Ub1–5FK Crvena Zvezda28 Oct · away
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 63% · hit
D
FK Crvena Zvezda2–2FC Copenhagen22 Oct · home
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed
L
FC Lugano3–2FK Crvena Zvezda15 Oct · away
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed
W
Zemun0–2FK Crvena Zvezda30 Aug · away
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Inter Club d'Escaldes

D
Inter Club d'Escaldes0–0Penya Encarnada1 Nov · home
Pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes 67% · missed
D
FC Santa Coloma1–1Inter Club d'Escaldes25 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes 42% · missed
L
Inter Club d'Escaldes1–3Universitatea Craiova22 Oct · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 47% · hit
W
Inter Club d'Escaldes4–2Atlètic Club d'Escaldes18 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes 47% · hit
L
Mjallby AIF2–0Inter Club d'Escaldes15 Oct · away
Pick: Mjallby AIF 47% · hit

About this match

FK Crvena Zvezda and Inter Club d'Escaldes meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FK Crvena Zvezda win 51.4%, draw 26.2%, Inter Club d'Escaldes win 22.3%. The pick is FK Crvena Zvezda win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.1%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.