ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

KuPS vs Gent

KuPS Home · Elo 1,634
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gent Away · Elo 1,568
Tammelan Stadion, Tampere Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: KuPS win
KuPS winPick
56.5%
Draw
21.2%
Gent win
22.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

KuPS history98 matches
Gent history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why KuPS are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • KuPS are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,634 against 1,568. On rating alone KuPS would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • KuPS score more

    1.51 goals a game over 98 matches for KuPS, against 1.31 over 77 for Gent.

  • KuPS concede fewer

    KuPS concede 1.11 a game, Gent 1.47.

  • Gent games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of KuPS matches, against 52% for Gent. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
KuPS
Gent
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.0
ELO
1568.5
98
ELO · Matches
77
1634.0
Current Team ELO
1568.5
1568.5
Current Opponent ELO
1634.0
65.51
Current ELO Difference
-65.51
0.59
Expected score
0.41
98
History Matches
77
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
55.19
Overperformance
53.39
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
98
Matches
77
1.74
PPG
1.31
50.0%
Win rate
33.8%
24.5%
Draw rate
29.9%
25.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
40
1.98
PPG
1.30
59.6%
Win rate
32.5%
19.1%
Draw rate
32.5%
21.3%
Loss rate
35.0%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
47
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.31
72.4%
Scoring rate
67.5%
45.9%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.30
78.7%
Scoring rate
67.5%
48.9%
BTTS rate
52.5%
—
Goals for per game
0.50
—
Scoring rate
50.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
98
History Matches
77
1.51
Goals Mean
1.31
1.34
Goals Std
1.37
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
44.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.2%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.5%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.47
65.3%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.63
63.8%
Conceding rate
72.5%
—
Goals against per game
0.25
—
Conceding rate
25.0%
98
History Matches
77
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.13
Conceded Std
1.42
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
11.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.7%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
98
History Matches
77
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.15
5.37
Stability score
0.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
97
Eligible Matches
77
33
Lead Matches
22
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.79
21
Trailing Matches
23
28.6%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
97
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.24
Rest days
81.16
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
60
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
1.50
—
Win rate
25.0%
—
Draw rate
75.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
1.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
13
Competition Season Count
8
11
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.73
Portability PPG Range
1.31
45.09
Portability Score
51.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
98
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO65.51
PPG0.43
GF0.20
GA-0.36
PPG0.68
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches21
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate4.9%
Scored 2+ rate13.7%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.86
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score5.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count6
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-6.04
Rest days-6.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO65.51
Current Opponent ELO-65.51
Current ELO Difference131.0
Expected score0.19
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

KuPS

L
AC Oulu2–0KuPS1 Nov · away
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed
D
KuPS1–1Gnistan29 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 53% · missed
D
HJK Helsinki2–2KuPS25 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 42% · missed
L
Borac Banja Luka2–0KuPS22 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 39% · missed
W
KuPS2–0VPS18 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 52% · hit

Gent

L
Lommel United2–0Gent1 Nov · away
Pick: Gent 42% · missed
W
Gent4–0Anderlecht25 Oct · home
Pick: Gent 52% · hit
L
SC Braga2–0Gent22 Oct · away
Pick: SC Braga 57% · hit
W
Gent1–0Aarhus15 Oct · home
Pick: Gent 40% · hit
W
Gent2–1Club Brugge KV30 Aug · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 51% · missed

About this match

KuPS and Gent meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Tammelan Stadion, Tampere. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: KuPS win 56.5%, draw 21.2%, Gent win 22.3%. The pick is KuPS win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.