ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax

FC Midtjylland Home · Elo 1,694
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ajax Away · Elo 1,633
MCH Arena, Herning Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Midtjylland win
FC Midtjylland winPick
45.4%
Draw
26.4%
Ajax win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

FC Midtjylland history93 matches
Ajax history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Midtjylland are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Midtjylland are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,694 against 1,633. On rating alone FC Midtjylland would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Midtjylland score more

    2.23 goals a game over 93 matches for FC Midtjylland, against 1.84 over 83 for Ajax.

  • FC Midtjylland concede fewer

    FC Midtjylland concede 1.17 a game, Ajax 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of FC Midtjylland matches, against 63% for Ajax. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Midtjylland
Ajax
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1693.9
ELO
1633.1
93
ELO · Matches
83
1693.9
Current Team ELO
1633.1
1633.1
Current Opponent ELO
1693.9
60.82
Current ELO Difference
-60.82
0.59
Expected score
0.41
93
History Matches
83
0.11
Residual Mean
0.09
58.72
Overperformance
57.30
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
83
2.01
PPG
1.78
59.1%
Win rate
50.6%
23.7%
Draw rate
26.5%
17.2%
Loss rate
22.9%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
91.6%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
43.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
36
2.16
PPG
1.75
65.3%
Win rate
47.2%
20.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
19.4%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
49
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.23
Goals for per game
1.84
88.2%
Scoring rate
85.5%
60.2%
BTTS rate
60.2%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.89
91.8%
Scoring rate
86.1%
63.3%
BTTS rate
63.9%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
93
History Matches
83
2.23
Goals Mean
1.84
1.52
Goals Std
1.29
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
64.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.2%
37.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.36
66.7%
Conceding rate
71.1%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.64
69.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
93
History Matches
83
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.21
Conceded Std
1.24
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
8.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
83
0.87
Result entropy
0.94
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.01
13.12
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
91
Eligible Matches
83
38
Lead Matches
35
81.6%
Lead Win Rate
74.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
15
38.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
91
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.24
Rest days
81.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
22
Short Rest History Matches
13
2.05
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.15
46
Normal Rest History Matches
48
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.50
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
2
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.63
2.17
Portability PPG Range
1.75
43.78
Portability Score
44.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO60.82
PPG0.23
GF0.38
GA-0.19
PPG0.50
PPG0.41
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.38
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score7.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.97
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate7.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate18.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-0.29
Rest days-6.89
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO60.82
Current Opponent ELO-60.82
Current ELO Difference121.6
Expected score0.17
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Midtjylland

W
FC Nordsjaelland2–3FC Midtjylland1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 39% · missed
W
FC Midtjylland2–1Odense29 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 58% · hit
W
FC Midtjylland3–2Lyngby25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 67% · hit
L
FC Midtjylland0–1St. Truiden22 Oct · home
Pick: FC Midtjylland 62% · missed
W
Viborg1–2FC Midtjylland19 Oct · away
Pick: FC Midtjylland 40% · hit

Ajax

W
Ajax1–0AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 47% · missed
W
Sparta Rotterdam1–2Ajax25 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 49% · hit
W
Ajax2–0Atalanta22 Oct · home
Pick: Ajax 44% · hit
W
Groningen2–5Ajax18 Oct · away
Pick: Ajax 54% · hit
L
HNK Hajduk Split2–1Ajax15 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 48% · hit

About this match

FC Midtjylland and Ajax meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at MCH Arena, Herning. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Midtjylland win 45.4%, draw 26.4%, Ajax win 28.3%. The pick is FC Midtjylland win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.