ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

AC Milan Home · Elo 1,604
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ferencvarosi TC Away · Elo 1,689
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ferencvarosi TC win
AC Milan win
25.3%
Draw
23.7%
Ferencvarosi TC winPick
51.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

AC Milan history76 matches
Ferencvarosi TC history96 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ferencvarosi TC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ferencvarosi TC are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,689 against 1,604. On rating alone Ferencvarosi TC would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Ferencvarosi TC score more

    1.50 goals a game over 76 matches for AC Milan, against 2.04 over 96 for Ferencvarosi TC.

  • Defences are close

    AC Milan concede 1.11 a game, Ferencvarosi TC 1.06.

  • Ferencvarosi TC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of AC Milan matches, against 60% for Ferencvarosi TC. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AC Milan
Ferencvarosi TC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.4
ELO
1689.2
76
ELO · Matches
96
1604.4
Current Team ELO
1689.2
1689.2
Current Opponent ELO
1604.4
-84.89
Current ELO Difference
84.89
0.38
Expected score
0.62
76
History Matches
96
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.78
Overperformance
58.22
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
96
1.68
PPG
1.96
48.7%
Win rate
57.3%
22.4%
Draw rate
24.0%
28.9%
Loss rate
18.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
46
1.74
PPG
1.98
48.6%
Win rate
58.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
22.9%
Loss rate
19.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
35
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
2.04
81.6%
Scoring rate
86.5%
53.9%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.46
Goals for per game
2.04
85.7%
Scoring rate
84.8%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.83
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
96
1.50
Goals Mean
2.04
1.08
Goals Std
1.89
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.5%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.06
69.7%
Conceding rate
63.5%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.15
68.6%
Conceding rate
69.6%
—
Goals against per game
0.83
—
Conceding rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
96
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.94
Conceded Std
1.07
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
96
0.95
Result entropy
0.89
1.49
Goal Difference Std
2.35
4.95
Stability score
11.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
96
20
Lead Matches
44
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.86
19
Trailing Matches
18
36.8%
Non-loss rate
61.1%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
96
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.96
Rest days
80.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
23
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
44
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.15
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
6
—
PPG
2.33
—
Win rate
66.7%
—
Draw rate
33.3%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
0
Current Competition Matches
6
—
Current Competition PPG
2.33
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
10
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.50
47.50
Portability Score
52.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
96
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-84.89
PPG-0.27
GF-0.54
GA0.04
PPG-0.24
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.80
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.86
Stability score-6.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches-6
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-5.30
Rest days-6.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-14
Short Rest Points Per Match0.23
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-84.89
Current Opponent ELO84.89
Current ELO Difference-169.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AC Milan

W
AC Milan3–1Inter31 Oct · home
Pick: Inter 59% · missed
L
AC Milan2–4Bologna28 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 50% · missed
W
Udinese0–2AC Milan25 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 38% · hit
L
Bournemouth3–0AC Milan22 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 41% · missed
W
AC Milan3–2Atalanta18 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 37% · hit

Ferencvarosi TC

W
Ferencvarosi TC2–0Paks1 Nov · home
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 51% · hit
W
Bicskei1–4Ferencvarosi TC28 Oct · away
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 54% · hit
W
Ferencvarosi TC4–1Torreense22 Oct · home
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 63% · hit
D
Kisvarda FC1–1Ferencvarosi TC18 Oct · away
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 38% · missed
W
Ferencvarosi TC2–1Plzen15 Oct · home
Pick: Ferencvarosi TC 43% · hit

About this match

AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: AC Milan win 25.3%, draw 23.7%, Ferencvarosi TC win 51.0%. The pick is Ferencvarosi TC win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.