ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Crystal Palace Home · Elo 1,581
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
1899 Hoffenheim Away · Elo 1,617
Selhurst Park, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crystal Palace win
Crystal Palace winPick
57.9%
Draw
21.2%
1899 Hoffenheim win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Crystal Palace history88 matches
1899 Hoffenheim history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Crystal Palace are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • 1899 Hoffenheim are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,581. On rating alone 1899 Hoffenheim would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • 1899 Hoffenheim score more

    1.43 goals a game over 88 matches for Crystal Palace, against 2.16 over 62 for 1899 Hoffenheim.

  • Crystal Palace concede fewer

    Crystal Palace concede 1.18 a game, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.53.

  • 1899 Hoffenheim games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Crystal Palace matches, against 73% for 1899 Hoffenheim. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.0
ELO
1617.1
88
ELO · Matches
62
1581.0
Current Team ELO
1617.1
1617.1
Current Opponent ELO
1581.0
-36.15
Current ELO Difference
36.15
0.45
Expected score
0.55
88
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.09
53.53
Overperformance
57.06
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.30
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
62
1.55
PPG
1.74
42.0%
Win rate
50.0%
28.4%
Draw rate
24.2%
29.5%
Loss rate
25.8%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.6%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
58.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
31
1.67
PPG
1.65
44.2%
Win rate
45.2%
34.9%
Draw rate
29.0%
20.9%
Loss rate
25.8%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
61.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
43
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.43
Goals for per game
2.16
77.3%
Scoring rate
85.5%
52.3%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.51
Goals for per game
2.00
76.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
55.8%
BTTS rate
64.5%
88
History Matches
62
1.43
Goals Mean
2.16
1.13
Goals Std
1.60
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
59.7%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
40.3%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.53
64.8%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.74
62.8%
Conceding rate
77.4%
88
History Matches
62
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.18
Conceded Std
1.35
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.75
Goal Difference Std
2.38
1.51
Stability score
5.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
62
35
Lead Matches
26
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
19
26.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.16
Rest days
75.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.05
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
49
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.78
1.82
Portability PPG Range
2.06
46.64
Portability Score
39.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-36.15
PPG-0.20
GF-0.73
GA-0.35
PPG0.03
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches26
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches26
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches26
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score-3.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score7.45
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches16
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-36.15
Current Opponent ELO36.15
Current ELO Difference-72.30
Expected score-0.10
History Matches26
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crystal Palace

L
Tottenham2–0Crystal Palace31 Oct · away
Pick: Tottenham 40% · hit
W
Fulham0–1Crystal Palace28 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace 44% · hit
L
Crystal Palace0–2Newcastle25 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle 39% · hit
D
Beşiktaş2–2Crystal Palace22 Oct · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 41% · missed
L
Brighton5–0Crystal Palace18 Oct · away
Pick: Brighton 49% · hit

1899 Hoffenheim

L
Werder Bremen2–01899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen 44% · hit
W
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · missed
W
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Lyon22 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon 53% · missed
W
Borussia Mönchengladbach1–21899 Hoffenheim18 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% · missed
L
1899 Hoffenheim2–3Beşiktaş15 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 49% · hit

About this match

Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Selhurst Park, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Crystal Palace win 57.9%, draw 21.2%, 1899 Hoffenheim win 20.8%. The pick is Crystal Palace win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.