ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

Levski Sofia Home · Elo 1,727
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jagiellonia Away · Elo 1,643
Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sophia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Levski Sofia win
Levski Sofia winPick
41.0%
Draw
31.5%
Jagiellonia win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Levski Sofia history88 matches
Jagiellonia history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Levski Sofia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Levski Sofia are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,727 against 1,643. On rating alone Levski Sofia would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Levski Sofia score more

    1.82 goals a game over 88 matches for Levski Sofia, against 1.57 over 92 for Jagiellonia.

  • Levski Sofia concede fewer

    Levski Sofia concede 0.67 a game, Jagiellonia 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Levski Sofia matches, against 55% for Jagiellonia. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1727.1
ELO
1642.7
88
ELO · Matches
92
1727.1
Current Team ELO
1642.7
1642.7
Current Opponent ELO
1727.1
84.35
Current ELO Difference
-84.35
0.62
Expected score
0.38
88
History Matches
92
0.14
Residual Mean
0.08
61.40
Overperformance
56.40
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
2.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
92
2.05
PPG
1.74
59.1%
Win rate
48.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
27.2%
13.6%
Loss rate
23.9%
67.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.2%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
51
Matches
45
2.22
PPG
1.44
66.7%
Win rate
35.6%
21.6%
Draw rate
37.8%
11.8%
Loss rate
26.7%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
51
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.57
77.3%
Scoring rate
84.8%
39.8%
BTTS rate
58.7%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.24
80.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
64.4%
—
Goals for per game
1.50
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
92
1.82
Goals Mean
1.57
1.56
Goals Std
1.20
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
52.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.2%
29.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.15
50.0%
Conceding rate
67.4%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.31
41.2%
Conceding rate
73.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
92
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.82
Conceded Std
1.17
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.5%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
92
0.85
Result entropy
0.95
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.79
14.72
Stability score
4.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
92
39
Lead Matches
31
87.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
14
63.6%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
92
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.98
Rest days
83.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
19
2.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.16
55
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
2.00
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
50.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
2.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
11
Competition Season Count
11
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.72
48.04
Portability Score
68.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO84.35
PPG0.31
GF0.25
GA-0.48
PPG0.77
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate32.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.85
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score9.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate6.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate42.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range1.28
Portability Score-20.11
Rest days-8.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.62
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO84.35
Current Opponent ELO-84.35
Current ELO Difference168.7
Expected score0.24
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Levski Sofia

D
Arda Kardzhali1–1Levski Sofia27 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 54% · missed
W
Plzen1–2Levski Sofia22 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 35% · hit
W
Spartak Pleven0–2Levski Sofia18 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 58% · hit
D
NEC Nijmegen1–1Levski Sofia15 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 51% · missed
L
AEK Athens FC4–0Levski Sofia26 Aug · away
Pick: Levski Sofia 45% · missed

Jagiellonia

W
Lechia Gdansk0–6Jagiellonia28 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia 56% · hit
W
Jagiellonia1–0Wisla Plock25 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 60% · hit
L
Jagiellonia0–3Anderlecht22 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 51% · missed
L
Zaglebie Lubin1–0Jagiellonia18 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 38% · hit
W
Jagiellonia3–1Ararat-Armenia15 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 46% · hit

About this match

Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sophia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Levski Sofia win 41.0%, draw 31.5%, Jagiellonia win 27.6%. The pick is Levski Sofia win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.