ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Real Sociedad Home · Elo 1,526
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lyon Away · Elo 1,645
Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lyon win
Real Sociedad win
29.2%
Draw
21.4%
Lyon winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Real Sociedad history84 matches
Lyon history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lyon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lyon are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,645 against 1,526. On rating alone Lyon would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Lyon score more

    1.49 goals a game over 84 matches for Real Sociedad, against 1.92 over 83 for Lyon.

  • Lyon concede fewer

    Real Sociedad concede 1.52 a game, Lyon 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Real Sociedad matches, against 60% for Lyon. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Sociedad
Lyon
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.3
ELO
1644.7
84
ELO · Matches
83
1526.3
Current Team ELO
1644.7
1644.7
Current Opponent ELO
1526.3
-118.4
Current ELO Difference
118.4
0.34
Expected score
0.66
84
History Matches
83
0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
50.59
Overperformance
56.96
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
83
1.36
PPG
1.89
36.9%
Win rate
57.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.7%
38.1%
Loss rate
26.5%
79.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.9%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.2%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
41
1.58
PPG
1.46
44.7%
Win rate
41.5%
23.7%
Draw rate
22.0%
31.6%
Loss rate
36.6%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
38
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.49
Goals for per game
1.92
77.4%
Scoring rate
86.7%
64.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.59
76.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
57.9%
BTTS rate
53.7%
84
History Matches
83
1.49
Goals Mean
1.92
1.15
Goals Std
1.38
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
57.8%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.19
85.7%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.32
78.9%
Conceding rate
65.9%
84
History Matches
83
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.07
Conceded Std
1.16
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
83
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.50
Stability score
12.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
83
28
Lead Matches
32
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.78
24
Trailing Matches
14
29.2%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.95
Rest days
74.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.73
49
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.17
48.24
Portability Score
59.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-118.4
PPG-0.53
GF-0.43
GA0.33
PPG0.12
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches1
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-11.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.17
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate0.6%
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-11.16
Rest days0.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-118.4
Current Opponent ELO118.4
Current ELO Difference-236.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Sociedad

L
Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad1 Nov · away
Pick: Athletic Club 42% · hit
W
Real Sociedad2–1Levante25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad 48% · hit
W
Lillestrom0–6Real Sociedad22 Oct · away
Pick: Lillestrom 40% · missed
W
Malaga2–5Real Sociedad18 Oct · away
Pick: Malaga 39% · missed
D
Union St. Gilloise1–1Real Sociedad15 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 56% · missed

Lyon

L
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Lyon22 Oct · away
Pick: Lyon 53% · missed
W
Lyon2–1Nice18 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon 63% · hit
W
Lyon3–2Crystal Palace15 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace 39% · missed
D
Lyon1–1Le Havre29 Aug · home
Pick: Lyon 52% · missed
L
Lyon1–2Fenerbahçe26 Aug · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 39% · hit

About this match

Real Sociedad and Lyon meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Real Sociedad win 29.2%, draw 21.4%, Lyon win 49.4%. The pick is Lyon win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.