ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Lillestrom vs Plzen

Lillestrom Home · Elo 1,618
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Plzen Away · Elo 1,631
Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Plzen win
Lillestrom win
30.9%
Draw
21.4%
Plzen winPick
47.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

Lillestrom history75 matches
Plzen history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Plzen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,618 against 1,631. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lillestrom score more

    2.25 goals a game over 75 matches for Lillestrom, against 1.83 over 89 for Plzen.

  • Lillestrom concede fewer

    Lillestrom concede 1.07 a game, Plzen 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Lillestrom matches, against 54% for Plzen. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lillestrom
Plzen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.9
ELO
1630.7
75
ELO · Matches
89
1617.9
Current Team ELO
1630.7
1630.7
Current Opponent ELO
1617.9
-12.84
Current ELO Difference
12.84
0.48
Expected score
0.52
75
History Matches
89
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.57
Overperformance
56.10
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.80
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
89
2.05
PPG
1.74
62.7%
Win rate
49.4%
17.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
24.7%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.9%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
43
2.07
PPG
1.70
64.3%
Win rate
48.8%
14.3%
Draw rate
23.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
27.9%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
42
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.25
Goals for per game
1.83
82.7%
Scoring rate
78.7%
49.3%
BTTS rate
55.1%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.84
88.1%
Scoring rate
72.1%
59.5%
BTTS rate
51.2%
75
History Matches
89
2.25
Goals Mean
1.83
1.77
Goals Std
1.49
82.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
65.3%
Scored 2+ rate
53.9%
34.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
2.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.24
62.7%
Conceding rate
68.5%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.35
69.0%
Conceding rate
69.8%
75
History Matches
89
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.16
Conceded Std
1.23
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.5%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
89
0.84
Result entropy
0.95
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.80
16.39
Stability score
5.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
89
33
Lead Matches
46
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
22
29.4%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.16
Rest days
81.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
18
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
42
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.20
48.69
Portability Score
56.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-12.84
PPG0.31
GF0.42
GA-0.17
PPG0.37
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score11.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate10.5%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate11.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-8.00
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.83
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-12.84
Current Opponent ELO12.84
Current ELO Difference-25.68
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lillestrom

W
Start0–1Lillestrom1 Nov · away
Pick: Lillestrom 50% · hit
W
Lillestrom2–1Sogndal28 Oct · home
Pick: Lillestrom 58% · hit
W
Lillestrom3–2Brann25 Oct · home
Pick: Brann 47% · missed
L
Lillestrom0–6Real Sociedad22 Oct · home
Pick: Lillestrom 40% · missed
W
Sandefjord0–2Lillestrom18 Oct · away
Pick: Lillestrom 44% · hit

Plzen

W
Baník Ostrava0–4Plzen1 Nov · away
Pick: Plzen 48% · hit
W
Vysočina Jihlava1–6Plzen28 Oct · away
Pick: Plzen 48% · hit
L
Plzen1–2Pardubice25 Oct · home
Pick: Plzen 53% · missed
L
Plzen1–2Levski Sofia22 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 35% · hit
W
FK Jablonec2–3Plzen18 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 48% · missed

About this match

Lillestrom and Plzen meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Lillestrom win 30.9%, draw 21.4%, Plzen win 47.6%. The pick is Plzen win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.