ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Bromley vs Rotherham

Bromley Home · Elo 1,572
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rotherham Away · Elo 1,441
Hayes Lane, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bromley win
Bromley winPick
38.8%
Draw
27.8%
Rotherham win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Bromley history84 matches
Rotherham history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bromley are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bromley are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,441. On rating alone Bromley would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Bromley score more

    1.49 goals a game over 84 matches for Bromley, against 1.06 over 87 for Rotherham.

  • Bromley concede fewer

    Bromley concede 1.27 a game, Rotherham 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Bromley matches, against 51% for Rotherham. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bromley
Rotherham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.7
ELO
1440.8
84
ELO · Matches
87
1571.7
Current Team ELO
1440.8
1440.8
Current Opponent ELO
1571.7
130.9
Current ELO Difference
-130.9
0.68
Expected score
0.32
84
History Matches
87
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.06
Overperformance
47.14
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.45
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
87
1.64
PPG
1.03
44.0%
Win rate
26.4%
32.1%
Draw rate
24.1%
23.8%
Loss rate
49.4%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.1%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
45
1.85
PPG
0.89
50.0%
Win rate
24.4%
34.8%
Draw rate
15.6%
15.2%
Loss rate
60.0%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
46
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.49
Goals for per game
1.06
84.5%
Scoring rate
64.4%
58.3%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.96
89.1%
Scoring rate
57.8%
60.9%
BTTS rate
40.0%
84
History Matches
87
1.49
Goals Mean
1.06
1.01
Goals Std
1.16
84.5%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.55
67.9%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.49
67.4%
Conceding rate
75.6%
84
History Matches
87
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.27
Conceded Std
1.23
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.8%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
10.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
87
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.82
Stability score
5.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
86
25
Lead Matches
25
64.0%
Lead Win Rate
48.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.59
16
Trailing Matches
35
43.8%
Non-loss rate
22.9%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
67
Normal Rest History Matches
73
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
12
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.91
46.62
Portability Score
57.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO130.9
PPG0.61
GF0.43
GA-0.28
PPG0.96
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate20.2%
Scored 2+ rate18.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-2.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate16.0%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-19
Non-loss rate20.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score-11.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO130.9
Current Opponent ELO-130.9
Current ELO Difference261.8
Expected score0.36
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bromley

L
Wigan3–2Bromley31 Oct · away
Pick: Bromley 40% · missed
L
Milton Keynes Dons4–1Bromley27 Oct · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 40% · hit
D
Bromley1–1Peterborough24 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 48% · missed
L
Bromley0–4Leicester20 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 56% · missed
L
Stockport County1–0Bromley17 Oct · away
Pick: Stockport County 46% · hit

Rotherham

L
Rotherham0–1Newcastle United U213 Nov · home
Pick: Rotherham 62% · missed
L
Swindon Town2–1Rotherham31 Oct · away
Pick: Swindon Town 49% · hit
D
Rotherham3–3Shrewsbury24 Oct · home
Pick: Rotherham 59% · missed
D
Rotherham2–2Newport County20 Oct · home
Pick: Rotherham 36% · missed
L
Fleetwood Town2–0Rotherham17 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 46% · hit

About this match

Bromley and Rotherham meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Hayes Lane, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bromley win 38.8%, draw 27.8%, Rotherham win 33.4%. The pick is Bromley win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.