ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

AEK Athens FC Home · Elo 1,692
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Madrid Away · Elo 1,744
Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia Referee: Maurizio Mariani Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Madrid win
AEK Athens FC win
27.6%
Draw
25.0%
Real Madrid winPick
47.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

AEK Athens FC history78 matches
Real Madrid history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Madrid are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Madrid are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,744 against 1,692. On rating alone Real Madrid would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Real Madrid score more

    1.68 goals a game over 78 matches for AEK Athens FC, against 2.03 over 97 for Real Madrid.

  • AEK Athens FC concede fewer

    AEK Athens FC concede 0.87 a game, Real Madrid 1.16.

  • Real Madrid games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of AEK Athens FC matches, against 65% for Real Madrid. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AEK Athens FC
Real Madrid
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1692.2
ELO
1743.8
78
ELO · Matches
97
1692.2
Current Team ELO
1743.8
1743.8
Current Opponent ELO
1692.2
-51.65
Current ELO Difference
51.65
0.43
Expected score
0.57
78
History Matches
97
0.12
Residual Mean
0.12
59.90
Overperformance
59.63
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.60
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.50
2.10
Goals for per game
2.10
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
97
1.96
PPG
2.11
57.7%
Win rate
67.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
10.3%
19.2%
Loss rate
22.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.5%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
52
2.15
PPG
1.90
67.5%
Win rate
59.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
11.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
40
History Matches
52
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
2.03
79.5%
Scoring rate
90.7%
39.7%
BTTS rate
59.8%
1.98
Goals for per game
1.85
87.5%
Scoring rate
86.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
51.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
—
0.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
78
History Matches
97
1.68
Goals Mean
2.03
1.40
Goals Std
1.22
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
66.0%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.9%
1.98
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.16
52.6%
Conceding rate
68.0%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.27
50.0%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
78
History Matches
97
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.08
Conceded Std
1.14
24.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.5%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
97
0.89
Result entropy
0.76
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.67
11.45
Stability score
23.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
97
31
Lead Matches
47
90.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.94
16
Trailing Matches
18
50.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
97
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.03
Rest days
73.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
21
2.56
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
43
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
18
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
100.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
1.00
Current Competition PPG
—
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
10
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.32
Portability PPG Range
0.89
50.79
Portability Score
63.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-51.65
PPG-0.15
GF-0.35
GA-0.29
PPG0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-12.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate2.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-12.75
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-51.65
Current Opponent ELO51.65
Current ELO Difference-103.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AEK Athens FC

L
PAOK3–1AEK Athens FC28 Oct · away
Pick: PAOK 46% · hit
W
AEK Athens FC5–0Panetolikos24 Oct · home
Pick: AEK Athens FC 63% · hit
L
Manchester City5–1AEK Athens FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 55% · hit
L
Shakhtar Donetsk3–1AEK Athens FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 49% · hit
D
Kifisia1–1AEK Athens FC30 Aug · away
Pick: AEK Athens FC 47% · missed

Real Madrid

W
Racing Santander0–3Real Madrid1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Madrid 52% · hit
W
Barcelona1–2Real Madrid25 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona 48% · missed
W
Real Madrid4–1RB Leipzig21 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid 65% · hit
W
Real Madrid4–1Sevilla18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid 48% · hit
W
AS Roma3–4Real Madrid14 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid 44% · hit

About this match

AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: AEK Athens FC win 27.6%, draw 25.0%, Real Madrid win 47.5%. The pick is Real Madrid win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.