ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

RB Leipzig Home · Elo 1,618
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manchester City Away · Elo 1,740
Leipzig Red Bull Arena Referee: Marco Guida Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manchester City win
RB Leipzig win
25.6%
Draw
20.4%
Manchester City winPick
53.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.1%
Under 2.533.9%

How much we know

RB Leipzig history67 matches
Manchester City history93 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Manchester City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Manchester City are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,740 against 1,618. On rating alone Manchester City would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Manchester City score more

    1.87 goals a game over 67 matches for RB Leipzig, against 2.11 over 93 for Manchester City.

  • Manchester City concede fewer

    RB Leipzig concede 1.33 a game, Manchester City 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of RB Leipzig matches, against 60% for Manchester City. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RB Leipzig
Manchester City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.6
ELO
1740.4
67
ELO · Matches
93
1617.6
Current Team ELO
1740.4
1740.4
Current Opponent ELO
1617.6
-122.8
Current ELO Difference
122.8
0.33
Expected score
0.67
67
History Matches
93
0.08
Residual Mean
0.13
56.20
Overperformance
60.50
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.00
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
93
1.70
PPG
2.13
50.7%
Win rate
65.6%
17.9%
Draw rate
16.1%
31.3%
Loss rate
18.3%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.2%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
46
2.10
PPG
1.89
64.5%
Win rate
56.5%
16.1%
Draw rate
19.6%
19.4%
Loss rate
23.9%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
31
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.87
Goals for per game
2.11
82.1%
Scoring rate
87.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
49.5%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.65
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.4%
61.3%
BTTS rate
45.7%
67
History Matches
93
1.87
Goals Mean
2.11
1.60
Goals Std
1.53
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.1%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
26.9%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
0.97
65.7%
Conceding rate
59.1%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.09
61.3%
Conceding rate
58.7%
67
History Matches
93
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.38
Conceded Std
1.05
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.8%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
93
0.92
Result entropy
0.80
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.96
7.53
Stability score
19.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
93
30
Lead Matches
50
76.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
16
23.1%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
93
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.17
Rest days
73.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.18
36
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
12
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
9
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.98
Portability PPG Range
2.00
58.79
Portability Score
45.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
93
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-122.8
PPG-0.43
GF-0.24
GA0.36
PPG0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-26
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches-26
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-12.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.14
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-20
Lead Win Rate0.7%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score13.52
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.18
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-122.8
Current Opponent ELO122.8
Current ELO Difference-245.6
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-26
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RB Leipzig

W
FC Schalke 040–2RB Leipzig31 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit
W
Rot-Weiß Essen1–2RB Leipzig27 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 41% · hit
W
RB Leipzig4–0SV Elversberg24 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit
L
Real Madrid4–1RB Leipzig21 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid 65% · hit
L
Bayern München6–1RB Leipzig17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München 63% · hit

Manchester City

L
Manchester City0–1Brighton31 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City 40% · missed
L
Aston Villa2–1Manchester City24 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 57% · missed
W
Manchester City5–1AEK Athens FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City 55% · hit
W
Manchester City3–2Ipswich17 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City 60% · hit
L
Manchester City2–4Paris Saint Germain14 Oct · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 42% · hit

About this match

RB Leipzig and Manchester City meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Leipzig Red Bull Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: RB Leipzig win 25.6%, draw 20.4%, Manchester City win 53.9%. The pick is Manchester City win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.1%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.