ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool

Fenerbahçe Home · Elo 1,713
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Liverpool Away · Elo 1,586
Chobani Stadium, Istanbul Referee: Clement Turpin Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fenerbahçe win
Fenerbahçe winPick
45.7%
Draw
22.5%
Liverpool win
31.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Fenerbahçe history95 matches
Liverpool history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fenerbahçe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fenerbahçe are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,713 against 1,586. On rating alone Fenerbahçe would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Fenerbahçe score more

    2.13 goals a game over 95 matches for Fenerbahçe, against 1.80 over 87 for Liverpool.

  • Fenerbahçe concede fewer

    Fenerbahçe concede 1.03 a game, Liverpool 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Fenerbahçe matches, against 63% for Liverpool. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fenerbahçe
Liverpool
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1712.9
ELO
1586.4
95
ELO · Matches
87
1712.9
Current Team ELO
1586.4
1586.4
Current Opponent ELO
1712.9
126.4
Current ELO Difference
-126.4
0.67
Expected score
0.33
95
History Matches
87
0.11
Residual Mean
0.05
59.09
Overperformance
54.39
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
95
Matches
87
2.07
PPG
1.63
61.1%
Win rate
48.3%
24.2%
Draw rate
18.4%
14.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
45.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
48
Matches
41
2.17
PPG
1.34
64.6%
Win rate
39.0%
22.9%
Draw rate
17.1%
12.5%
Loss rate
43.9%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
48
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.13
Goals for per game
1.80
86.3%
Scoring rate
85.1%
56.8%
BTTS rate
59.8%
2.19
Goals for per game
1.59
89.6%
Scoring rate
82.9%
60.4%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
40.0%
BTTS rate
—
95
History Matches
87
2.13
Goals Mean
1.80
1.39
Goals Std
1.31
86.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.1%
63.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
2.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.39
63.2%
Conceding rate
71.3%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.59
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.2%
0.40
Goals against per game
—
40.0%
Conceding rate
—
95
History Matches
87
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.39
0.99
Conceded Std
1.20
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
8.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
13.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
13.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
10.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
95
History Matches
87
0.84
Result entropy
0.94
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.84
15.64
Stability score
6.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
87
41
Lead Matches
33
95.1%
Lead Win Rate
78.8%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.83
24
Trailing Matches
24
58.3%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
37.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.97
Rest days
73.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.31
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
65
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
0
2.20
PPG
—
60.0%
Win rate
—
40.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
5
Current Competition Matches
0
2.20
Current Competition PPG
—
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
12
Competition Season Count
13
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.40
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.25
48.92
Portability Score
55.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
95
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO126.4
PPG0.44
GF0.32
GA-0.36
PPG0.83
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate18.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score9.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate16.3%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate37.5%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches5
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-6.90
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.45
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO126.4
Current Opponent ELO-126.4
Current ELO Difference252.9
Expected score0.35
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fenerbahçe

L
Fenerbahçe1–2Göztepe31 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 59% · missed
L
Galatasaray2–1Fenerbahçe26 Oct · away
Pick: Galatasaray 42% · hit
D
Fenerbahçe2–2Slavia Praha20 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 48% · missed
W
Fenerbahçe3–0Alanyaspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 49% · hit
L
Aston Villa6–0Fenerbahçe14 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahçe 45% · missed

Liverpool

L
Liverpool0–1Arsenal1 Nov · home
Pick: Arsenal 49% · hit
W
Liverpool2–0Brighton25 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool 44% · hit
W
Liverpool4–3Villarreal20 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool 54% · hit
W
Brentford1–2Liverpool17 Oct · away
Pick: Brentford 54% · missed
W
Lask Linz3–6Liverpool14 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool 43% · hit

About this match

Fenerbahçe and Liverpool meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Chobani Stadium, Istanbul. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Fenerbahçe win 45.7%, draw 22.5%, Liverpool win 31.8%. The pick is Fenerbahçe win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.