ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

PSV Eindhoven Home · Elo 1,679
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Club Brugge KV Away · Elo 1,667
Philips Stadion, Eindhoven Referee: Irfan Peljto Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Brugge KV win
PSV Eindhoven win
31.0%
Draw
21.9%
Club Brugge KV winPick
47.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.8%
No31.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.6%
Under 2.525.4%

How much we know

PSV Eindhoven history78 matches
Club Brugge KV history96 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Club Brugge KV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,679 against 1,667. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • PSV Eindhoven score more

    2.69 goals a game over 78 matches for PSV Eindhoven, against 2.13 over 96 for Club Brugge KV.

  • Club Brugge KV concede fewer

    PSV Eindhoven concede 1.55 a game, Club Brugge KV 1.30.

  • PSV Eindhoven games more often go over 2.5 goals

    87% of PSV Eindhoven matches, against 70% for Club Brugge KV. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PSV Eindhoven
Club Brugge KV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1679.1
ELO
1667.1
78
ELO · Matches
96
1679.1
Current Team ELO
1667.1
1667.1
Current Opponent ELO
1679.1
12.06
Current ELO Difference
-12.06
0.52
Expected score
0.48
78
History Matches
96
0.13
Residual Mean
0.09
60.00
Overperformance
57.15
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.70
3.20
Goals for per game
2.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
96
2.13
PPG
1.94
66.7%
Win rate
59.4%
12.8%
Draw rate
15.6%
20.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
98.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
87.2%
Over 2.5 rate
69.8%
60.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
47
2.11
PPG
1.68
66.7%
Win rate
51.1%
11.1%
Draw rate
14.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
34.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
91.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.2%
64.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.3%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
45
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.69
Goals for per game
2.13
94.9%
Scoring rate
88.5%
79.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.89
Goals for per game
1.72
93.3%
Scoring rate
83.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
66.0%
78
History Matches
96
2.69
Goals Mean
2.13
1.53
Goals Std
1.50
94.9%
Scored 1+ rate
88.5%
79.5%
Scored 2+ rate
61.5%
47.4%
Scored 3+ rate
32.3%
2.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.55
Goals against per game
1.30
84.6%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.40
86.7%
Conceding rate
80.9%
78
History Matches
96
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.16
Conceded Std
1.14
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.7%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
5.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
5.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
96
0.78
Result entropy
0.86
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.96
21.85
Stability score
13.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
96
37
Lead Matches
44
97.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
21
47.4%
Non-loss rate
38.1%
26.3%
Trailing Win Rate
23.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
96
1.35
First Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.31
Rest days
73.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.44
48
Normal Rest History Matches
65
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.47
Portability PPG Range
2.20
49.41
Portability Score
44.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
96
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.06
PPG0.19
GF0.57
GA0.25
PPG0.43
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate18.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score7.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate15.5%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate9.3%
Trailing Win Rate2.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score4.88
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.16
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO12.06
Current Opponent ELO-12.06
Current ELO Difference24.13
Expected score0.03
History Matches-18
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PSV Eindhoven

W
PSV Eindhoven7–0Willem II31 Oct · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 62% · hit
D
PSV Eindhoven1–1Feyenoord25 Oct · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 48% · missed
W
FC Porto0–1PSV Eindhoven20 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 50% · missed
L
ADO Den Haag2–1PSV Eindhoven17 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 51% · missed
L
RB Leipzig1–0PSV Eindhoven13 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 49% · missed

Club Brugge KV

W
Zulte Waregem2–4Club Brugge KV30 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 50% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV3–2St. Truiden25 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 69% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV3–0Lens21 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 65% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV1–0Lokeren-Temse17 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 68% · hit
W
Inter3–4Club Brugge KV13 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 38% · missed

About this match

PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge KV meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: PSV Eindhoven win 31.0%, draw 21.9%, Club Brugge KV win 47.1%. The pick is Club Brugge KV win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.6%. Both teams to score: 68.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.