ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

Borussia Dortmund Home · Elo 1,652
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Betis Away · Elo 1,655
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia Dortmund win
Borussia Dortmund winPick
39.9%
Draw
27.0%
Real Betis win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Borussia Dortmund history84 matches
Real Betis history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Borussia Dortmund are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,652 against 1,655. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Borussia Dortmund score more

    2.00 goals a game over 84 matches for Borussia Dortmund, against 1.77 over 95 for Real Betis.

  • Defences are close

    Borussia Dortmund concede 1.33 a game, Real Betis 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Borussia Dortmund matches, against 59% for Real Betis. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia Dortmund
Real Betis
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.6
ELO
1655.5
84
ELO · Matches
95
1651.6
Current Team ELO
1655.5
1655.5
Current Opponent ELO
1651.6
-3.85
Current ELO Difference
3.85
0.49
Expected score
0.51
84
History Matches
95
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
56.92
Overperformance
56.42
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
95
1.89
PPG
1.76
57.1%
Win rate
49.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
27.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
23.2%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
49
2.05
PPG
1.63
63.4%
Win rate
44.9%
14.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
22.0%
Loss rate
26.5%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
41
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.77
85.7%
Scoring rate
88.4%
56.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.69
87.8%
Scoring rate
85.7%
51.2%
BTTS rate
65.3%
84
History Matches
95
2.00
Goals Mean
1.77
1.31
Goals Std
1.22
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.4%
61.9%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
36.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.24
67.9%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.29
61.0%
Conceding rate
75.5%
84
History Matches
95
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.34
Conceded Std
1.19
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.6%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
95
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.81
11.34
Stability score
5.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
95
42
Lead Matches
34
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.79
20
Trailing Matches
25
20.0%
Non-loss rate
48.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.06
Rest days
71.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
27
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.96
55
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.90
55.26
Portability Score
62.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-3.85
PPG0.13
GF0.23
GA0.09
PPG0.42
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score6.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate12.2%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-7.67
Rest days3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-18
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-3.85
Current Opponent ELO3.85
Current ELO Difference-7.70
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia Dortmund

D
Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München 53% · missed
W
Borussia Dortmund3–2Werder Bremen27 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
Borussia Dortmund1–0Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
Sabah FA1–2Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 43% · hit
D
Union Berlin0–0Borussia Dortmund17 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 53% · missed

Real Betis

W
Real Betis2–1Malaga31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 63% · hit
D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed
W
Real Betis1–0Feyenoord21 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 51% · hit
L
Real Betis2–5Barcelona17 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona 63% · hit
W
Real Betis3–2FC Porto14 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 40% · hit

About this match

Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Borussia Dortmund win 39.9%, draw 27.0%, Real Betis win 33.1%. The pick is Borussia Dortmund win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.