Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Union Abong-Mbang
Match result probability Model pick: Aigle Royal de Moungo win
Aigle Royal de Moungo winPick
45.4%
Draw
27.3%
Union Abong-Mbang win
27.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.2%
No52.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.7%
Under 2.556.3%
How much we know
Aigle Royal de Moungo history45 matches
Union Abong-Mbang history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Aigle Royal de Moungo
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Aigle Royal de Moungo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Union Abong-Mbang are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,561 against 1,507. On rating alone Union Abong-Mbang would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.09 goals a game over 45 matches for Aigle Royal de Moungo, against 1.17 over 29 for Union Abong-Mbang.
-
Union Abong-Mbang concede fewer
Aigle Royal de Moungo concede 1.24 a game, Union Abong-Mbang 0.97.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
40% of Aigle Royal de Moungo matches, against 34% for Union Abong-Mbang. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 28 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Abong-Mbang@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1507.1
ELO
1560.7
45
ELO · Matches
29
1507.1
Current Team ELO
1560.7
1560.7
Current Opponent ELO
1507.1
-53.53
Current ELO Difference
53.53
0.42
Expected score
0.58
45
History Matches
29
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
51.00
Overperformance
54.83
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
29
1.38
PPG
1.62
40.0%
Win rate
41.4%
17.8%
Draw rate
37.9%
42.2%
Loss rate
20.7%
64.4%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
18
1.21
PPG
1.11
33.3%
Win rate
22.2%
20.8%
Draw rate
44.4%
45.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
24
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.09
Goals for per game
1.17
68.9%
Scoring rate
75.9%
46.7%
BTTS rate
48.3%
0.96
Goals for per game
0.94
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
29
1.09
Goals Mean
1.17
0.91
Goals Std
0.87
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.5%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
0.97
73.3%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.22
75.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
45
History Matches
29
1.24
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.16
Conceded Std
0.96
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.7%
17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
29
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.30
5.55
Stability score
3.62
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
23
15
Lead Matches
9
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.93
13
Trailing Matches
7
15.4%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
132.1
Rest days
140.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.51
65.34
Portability Score
66.25
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-53.53
PPG-0.24
GF-0.08
GA0.28
PPG0.10
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate7.0%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score1.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-0.90
Rest days-8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-53.53
Current Opponent ELO53.53
Current ELO Difference-107.1
Expected score-0.15
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Aigle Royal de Moungo
No earlier results with our pick yet
Union Abong-Mbang
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Aigle Royal de Moungo and Union Abong-Mbang meet in Elite One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aigle Royal de Moungo win 45.4%, draw 27.3%, Union Abong-Mbang win 27.2%. The pick is Aigle Royal de Moungo win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.