ScoreProb
Pro League United Arab Emirates Round 8 2026

Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

Al-Dhafra Home · Elo 1,427
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al-Ittihad Kalba Away · Elo 1,438
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Madinat Zayed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Dhafra win
Al-Dhafra winPick
42.4%
Draw
23.5%
Al-Ittihad Kalba win
34.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Al-Dhafra history48 matches
Al-Ittihad Kalba history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:55 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al-Dhafra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,427 against 1,438. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Al-Dhafra score more

    1.27 goals a game over 48 matches for Al-Dhafra, against 1.09 over 45 for Al-Ittihad Kalba.

  • Defences are close

    Al-Dhafra concede 1.71 a game, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.67.

  • Al-Ittihad Kalba games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Al-Dhafra matches, against 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al-Dhafra
Al-Ittihad Kalba@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1427.0
ELO
1437.6
48
ELO · Matches
45
1427.0
Current Team ELO
1437.6
1437.6
Current Opponent ELO
1427.0
-10.56
Current ELO Difference
10.56
0.48
Expected score
0.52
48
History Matches
45
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.07
44.45
Overperformance
44.90
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
2.20
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
45
1.13
PPG
0.93
31.3%
Win rate
20.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
46.7%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.52
PPG
1.04
47.8%
Win rate
25.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
29.2%
43.5%
Loss rate
45.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.09
62.5%
Scoring rate
71.1%
52.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.25
69.6%
Scoring rate
79.2%
56.5%
BTTS rate
70.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
45
1.27
Goals Mean
1.09
1.30
Goals Std
0.91
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
4.4%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.67
83.3%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.83
78.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
45
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.38
Conceded Std
1.07
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.8%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
45
0.93
Result entropy
0.95
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.27
6.80
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
45
10
Lead Matches
6
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.50
17
Trailing Matches
15
11.8%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.95
Rest days
77.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.37
Portability PPG Range
0.23
42.23
Portability Score
81.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.56
PPG0.19
GF0.18
GA0.04
PPG-0.50
PPG0.48
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score1.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate46.7%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-39.02
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-10.56
Current Opponent ELO10.56
Current ELO Difference-21.11
Expected score-0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al-Dhafra

L
Khorfakkan3–2Al-Dhafra24 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Dhafra 40% · missed
W
Al-Dhafra5–1Dubai United16 Oct · home
Pick: Dubai United 44% · missed
L
Khorfakkan2–0Al-Dhafra29 Aug · away
Pick: Khorfakkan 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al-Ittihad Kalba

D
Al-Ittihad Kalba2–2Al-Jazira18 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Jazira 63% · missed
D
Al Ain2–2Al-Ittihad Kalba8 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ain 70% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet in Pro League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:55 UTC. The match is played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Madinat Zayed. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al-Dhafra win 42.4%, draw 23.5%, Al-Ittihad Kalba win 34.1%. The pick is Al-Dhafra win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.