ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Al Kahrabaa vs Zakho

Al Kahrabaa Home · Elo 1,459
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zakho Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zakho win
Al Kahrabaa win
22.0%
Draw
23.3%
Zakho winPick
54.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%

How much we know

Al Kahrabaa history56 matches
Zakho history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Zakho are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zakho are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,459. On rating alone Zakho would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Zakho score more

    1.16 goals a game over 56 matches for Al Kahrabaa, against 1.34 over 67 for Zakho.

  • Zakho concede fewer

    Al Kahrabaa concede 1.38 a game, Zakho 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Al Kahrabaa matches, against 40% for Zakho. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Kahrabaa
Zakho
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.5
ELO
1536.7
56
ELO · Matches
67
1458.5
Current Team ELO
1536.7
1536.7
Current Opponent ELO
1458.5
-78.16
Current ELO Difference
78.16
0.39
Expected score
0.61
56
History Matches
67
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
47.92
Overperformance
52.27
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
67
1.16
PPG
1.64
32.1%
Win rate
44.8%
19.6%
Draw rate
29.9%
48.2%
Loss rate
25.4%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.2%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
19.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.33
PPG
1.34
36.7%
Win rate
34.4%
23.3%
Draw rate
31.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
34.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.34
67.9%
Scoring rate
74.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
73.3%
Scoring rate
59.4%
53.3%
BTTS rate
34.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
67
1.16
Goals Mean
1.34
1.08
Goals Std
1.17
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
0.90
78.6%
Conceding rate
59.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.88
73.3%
Conceding rate
53.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
67
1.38
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.03
Conceded Std
0.92
41.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.9%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.5%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
67
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.40
5.68
Stability score
2.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
67
14
Lead Matches
23
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.77
20
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.79
Rest days
71.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.38
66.67
Portability Score
74.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-78.16
PPG-0.48
GF-0.18
GA0.48
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.01
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score2.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate2.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-7.36
Rest days8.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-78.16
Current Opponent ELO78.16
Current ELO Difference-156.3
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Kahrabaa

L
Al-Jolan SC2–1Al Kahrabaa23 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Jolan SC 43% · hit
L
Al Kahrabaa0–1Al Talaba16 Oct · home
Pick: Al Talaba 49% · hit
D
Al Kahrabaa1–1Al-Karma26 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Karma 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zakho

D
Naft Maysan0–0Zakho31 Oct · away
Pick: Zakho 53% · missed
L
Al Zawra'a4–0Zakho29 Aug · away
Pick: Al Zawra'a 41% · hit
D
Zakho2–2Diyala25 Aug · home
Pick: Zakho 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Kahrabaa and Zakho meet in Iraqi League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Kahrabaa win 22.0%, draw 23.3%, Zakho win 54.7%. The pick is Zakho win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.