Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat
Match result probability Model pick: Al Kholood win
Al Kholood winPick
50.0%
Draw
23.7%
Al Khaleej Saihat win
26.2%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%
How much we know
Al Kholood history59 matches
Al Khaleej Saihat history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Kickoff5 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Al Kholood are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Kholood are rated 44 Elo points higher
Elo 1,484 against 1,440. On rating alone Al Kholood would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.31 goals a game over 59 matches for Al Kholood, against 1.39 over 59 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
-
Defences are close
Al Kholood concede 1.80 a game, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
63% of Al Kholood matches, against 61% for Al Khaleej Saihat. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Khaleej Saihat@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1483.8
ELO
1439.6
59
ELO · Matches
59
1483.8
Current Team ELO
1439.6
1439.6
Current Opponent ELO
1483.8
44.15
Current ELO Difference
-44.15
0.56
Expected score
0.44
59
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.23
Overperformance
45.76
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.10
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
59
1.17
PPG
0.95
33.9%
Win rate
22.0%
15.3%
Draw rate
28.8%
50.8%
Loss rate
49.2%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
32
1.30
PPG
0.97
36.7%
Win rate
21.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
43.3%
Loss rate
46.9%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.39
66.1%
Scoring rate
71.2%
55.9%
BTTS rate
64.4%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.44
70.0%
Scoring rate
78.1%
56.7%
BTTS rate
71.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
59
History Matches
59
1.31
Goals Mean
1.39
1.39
Goals Std
1.32
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
81.4%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.81
76.7%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
59
History Matches
59
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.39
Conceded Std
1.40
54.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.8%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.4%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
59
0.91
Result entropy
0.95
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.03
9.21
Stability score
5.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
59
16
Lead Matches
14
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.67
21
Trailing Matches
17
14.3%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.03
Rest days
72.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.29
37
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.69
66.03
Portability Score
67.01
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO44.15
PPG0.22
GF-0.08
GA0.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.83
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score3.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate30.4%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score-0.99
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.71
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO44.15
Current Opponent ELO-44.15
Current ELO Difference88.31
Expected score0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Kholood
L
Al-Nassr5–3Al Kholood29 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Nassr 68% · hit L
Al Kholood0–3Al-Ettifaq24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Kholood 38% · missed L
Al-Faisaly FC3–2Al Kholood15 Oct · away
Pick: Al Kholood 39% · missed W
Al Kholood3–1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 Aug · home
Pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 63% · missed D
Al Diriyah1–1Al Kholood26 Aug · away
Pick: Al Diriyah 39% · missed Al Khaleej Saihat
W
Al Khaleej Saihat4–2Al-Hazm29 Oct · home
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% · hit W
Al-Fateh2–3Al Khaleej Saihat18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% · hit W
Al Khaleej Saihat2–0Al-Fayha15 Oct · home
Pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 47% · hit D
Abha1–1Al Khaleej Saihat25 Aug · away
Pick: Abha 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat were due to play in Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.