ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al Saqer vs Al Bukayriyah

Al Saqer Home · Elo 1,558
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Bukayriyah Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Al Saqer win
33.9%
DrawPick
37.8%
Al Bukayriyah win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.9%
Under 2.559.1%

How much we know

Al Saqer history13 matches
Al Bukayriyah history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:35 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Saqer are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,458. On rating alone Al Saqer would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Al Saqer score more

    1.77 goals a game over 13 matches for Al Saqer, against 1.24 over 55 for Al Bukayriyah.

  • Al Saqer concede fewer

    Al Saqer concede 0.54 a game, Al Bukayriyah 1.16.

  • Al Bukayriyah games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Al Saqer matches, against 47% for Al Bukayriyah. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Saqer
Al Bukayriyah
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.9
ELO
1458.2
13
ELO · Matches
55
1557.9
Current Team ELO
1458.2
1458.2
Current Opponent ELO
1557.9
99.67
Current ELO Difference
-99.67
0.64
Expected score
0.36
13
History Matches
55
0.24
Residual Mean
-0.04
59.43
Overperformance
47.16
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.70
1.90
Goals for per game
0.90
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
55
2.31
PPG
1.44
69.2%
Win rate
40.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
23.6%
7.7%
Loss rate
36.4%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
27
2.25
PPG
1.41
62.5%
Win rate
37.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
29.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
8
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.24
92.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
38.5%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.07
87.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
51.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
13
History Matches
55
1.77
Goals Mean
1.24
1.25
Goals Std
1.14
92.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.54
Goals against per game
1.16
38.5%
Conceding rate
69.1%
0.38
Goals against per game
1.19
37.5%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
13
History Matches
55
0.54
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.84
Conceded Std
1.06
7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
61.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
61.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
61.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
55
0.72
Result entropy
0.98
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.73
28.07
Stability score
2.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
54
4
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
1
Trailing Matches
15
100.0%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.01
Rest days
78.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
7
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
5
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.34
—
Portability PPG Range
0.68
—
Portability Score
59.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO99.67
PPG0.87
GF0.53
GA-0.63
PPG0.00
PPG0.84
PPG1.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-42
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate32.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-42
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate19.6%
Scored 2+ rate13.4%
Scored 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches-42
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-42
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score25.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate27.8%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate93.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-31
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.15
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO99.67
Current Opponent ELO-99.67
Current ELO Difference199.3
Expected score0.28
History Matches-42
Residual Mean0.28
Overperformance12.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Saqer

D
Al Saqer1–1Al Taee1 Nov · home
Pick: Al Saqer 56% · missed
L
Al Wehda Club2–1Al Saqer27 Oct · away
Pick: Al Wehda Club 44% · hit
W
Al-Raed0–2Al Saqer19 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Raed 56% · missed
L
Al Saqer1–3Al Jabalain13 Oct · home
Pick: Al Saqer 46% · missed
D
Al Saqer0–0Al Okhdood31 Aug · home
Pick: Al Saqer 36% · missed

Al Bukayriyah

L
Al Jabalain3–0Al Bukayriyah2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Jabalain 39% · hit
W
Al Bukayriyah2–1Hajer26 Oct · home
Pick: Al Bukayriyah 64% · hit
D
Al Orubah1–1Al Bukayriyah20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Orubah 41% · missed
L
Al Bukayriyah0–2Al Zulfi13 Oct · home
Pick: Al Zulfi 41% · hit
L
Al Bukayriyah0–1Al-Adalah31 Aug · home
Pick: Al Bukayriyah 47% · missed

About this match

Al Saqer and Al Bukayriyah meet in Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:35 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Saqer win 33.9%, draw 37.8%, Al Bukayriyah win 28.3%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 40.9%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.