ScoreProb
Premier League Kuwait Round 8 2026

Al Shabab vs Al Tadhamon

Al Shabab Home · Elo 1,433
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Tadhamon Away · Elo 1,436
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Shabab win
Al Shabab winPick
36.1%
Draw
30.7%
Al Tadhamon win
33.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%

How much we know

Al Shabab history37 matches
Al Tadhamon history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 16:40 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Al Shabab are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,433 against 1,436. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Al Shabab score more

    0.92 goals a game over 37 matches for Al Shabab, against 0.78 over 37 for Al Tadhamon.

  • Al Shabab concede fewer

    Al Shabab concede 1.73 a game, Al Tadhamon 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Al Shabab matches, against 54% for Al Tadhamon. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Shabab
Al Tadhamon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.5
ELO
1436.1
37
ELO · Matches
37
1432.5
Current Team ELO
1436.1
1436.1
Current Opponent ELO
1432.5
-3.58
Current ELO Difference
3.58
0.49
Expected score
0.51
37
History Matches
37
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.09
44.00
Overperformance
44.06
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
37
1.00
PPG
0.89
24.3%
Win rate
24.3%
27.0%
Draw rate
16.2%
48.6%
Loss rate
59.5%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
20
1.17
PPG
0.90
27.8%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
15.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
60.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
18
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
0.78
62.2%
Scoring rate
59.5%
48.6%
BTTS rate
43.2%
0.89
Goals for per game
0.70
55.6%
Scoring rate
55.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
35.0%
37
History Matches
37
0.92
Goals Mean
0.78
0.91
Goals Std
0.84
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
59.5%
21.6%
Scored 2+ rate
13.5%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
2.7%
0.89
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.73
Goals against per game
1.95
78.4%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.95
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
37
History Matches
37
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.37
Conceded Std
1.72
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.5%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
21.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
37
0.95
Result entropy
0.86
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.07
4.61
Stability score
13.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
37
9
Lead Matches
6
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.44
Lead Points Retention
0.72
12
Trailing Matches
16
16.7%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
133.0
Rest days
133.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
17
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.41
75.00
Portability Score
70.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.58
PPG0.11
GF0.14
GA-0.22
PPG0.27
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches0
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-9.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score4.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-3.58
Current Opponent ELO3.58
Current ELO Difference-7.17
Expected score-0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Shabab

D
Al Nasar2–2Al Shabab2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Nasar 42% · missed
L
Al Fahaheel2–0Al Shabab18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Fahaheel 54% · hit
D
Al Sulaibikhat1–1Al Shabab31 Aug · away
Pick: Al Sulaibikhat 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Tadhamon

W
Al Tadhamon3–2Al Sahel31 Oct · home
Pick: Al Sahel 44% · missed
L
Al Tadhamon2–6Al Kuwait23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Kuwait 56% · hit
L
Al Nasar2–1Al Tadhamon18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Nasar 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Shabab and Al Tadhamon meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 16:40 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al Shabab win 36.1%, draw 30.7%, Al Tadhamon win 33.2%. The pick is Al Shabab win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.