ScoreProb
Division 1 United Arab Emirates Round 9 2026

Al Thaid vs Emirates Club

Al Thaid Home · Elo 1,539
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Emirates Club Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Thaid win
Al Thaid winPick
51.0%
Draw
25.5%
Emirates Club win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Al Thaid history46 matches
Emirates Club history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al Thaid are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Thaid are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,475. On rating alone Al Thaid would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 46 matches for Al Thaid, against 1.27 over 45 for Emirates Club.

  • Al Thaid concede fewer

    Al Thaid concede 1.20 a game, Emirates Club 1.56.

  • Emirates Club games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Al Thaid matches, against 60% for Emirates Club. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Thaid
Emirates Club@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.8
ELO
1475.2
46
ELO · Matches
45
1538.8
Current Team ELO
1475.2
1475.2
Current Opponent ELO
1538.8
63.58
Current ELO Difference
-63.58
0.59
Expected score
0.41
46
History Matches
45
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.84
Overperformance
48.21
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
45
1.59
PPG
1.33
43.5%
Win rate
37.8%
28.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
28.3%
Loss rate
42.2%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.61
PPG
1.41
43.5%
Win rate
40.9%
30.4%
Draw rate
18.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
40.9%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.27
80.4%
Scoring rate
71.1%
58.7%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.18
78.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
60.9%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
45
1.37
Goals Mean
1.27
1.07
Goals Std
1.10
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.56
69.6%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.41
73.9%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
45
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.13
Conceded Std
1.07
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.61
2.02
Stability score
4.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
45
12
Lead Matches
6
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
17
27.3%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
29.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.90
Rest days
74.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.21
76.09
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO63.58
PPG0.25
GF0.10
GA-0.36
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-2.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-6.27
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO63.58
Current Opponent ELO-63.58
Current ELO Difference127.2
Expected score0.18
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Thaid

W
Al Arabi0–2Al Thaid1 Nov · away
Pick: Al Arabi 51% · missed
L
Al Thaid1–2Al Jazira Al Hamra17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Thaid 73% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Emirates Club

W
Emirates Club3–0Dibba Al-Fujairah30 Oct · home
Pick: Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% · missed
W
Gulf United1–7Emirates Club16 Oct · away
Pick: Gulf United 43% · missed
W
Emirates Club3–1Palm City30 Aug · home
Pick: Emirates Club 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Thaid and Emirates Club meet in Division 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al Thaid win 51.0%, draw 25.5%, Emirates Club win 23.4%. The pick is Al Thaid win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.