ScoreProb
Division 1 United Arab Emirates Round 9 2026

Dubai City vs Forte Virtus

Dubai City Home · Elo 1,393
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Forte Virtus Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Forte Virtus win
Dubai City win
28.8%
Draw
18.3%
Forte Virtus winPick
52.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Dubai City history30 matches
Forte Virtus history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:50 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Forte Virtus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Forte Virtus are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,393. On rating alone Forte Virtus would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Forte Virtus score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 30 matches for Dubai City, against 2.00 over 1 for Forte Virtus.

  • Forte Virtus concede fewer

    Dubai City concede 1.93 a game, Forte Virtus 1.00.

  • Forte Virtus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Dubai City matches, against 100% for Forte Virtus. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dubai City
Forte Virtus@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1392.8
ELO
1507.7
30
ELO · Matches
1
1392.8
Current Team ELO
1507.7
1507.7
Current Opponent ELO
1392.8
-114.9
Current ELO Difference
114.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
30
History Matches
1
-0.18
Residual Mean
0.48
39.34
Overperformance
52.26
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.48
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
0.20
PPG
3.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
1
0.40
PPG
3.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
1
0.80
PPG
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
0
0.93
PPG
—
26.7%
Win rate
—
13.3%
Draw rate
—
60.0%
Loss rate
—
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
—
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
15
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
53.3%
Scoring rate
—
40.0%
BTTS rate
—
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
1
1.00
Goals Mean
2.00
1.03
Goals Std
—
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.93
Goals against per game
1.00
86.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
—
86.7%
Conceding rate
—
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
30
History Matches
1
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.41
Conceded Std
—
53.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
1
0.86
Result entropy
0.00
1.73
Goal Difference Std
—
13.50
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
30
Eligible Matches
1
3
Lead Matches
1
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
0
26.7%
Non-loss rate
—
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.23
First Half Goals For Mean
2.00
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.90
Rest days
74.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviationPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-114.9
PPG-2.20
GF-1.00
GA0.93
PPG-3.00
PPG-2.80
PPG-2.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches29
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate40.0%
History Matches15
History Matches29
Goals Mean-1.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.40
Scored 2+ rate-0.73
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
History Matches29
Conceded Mean0.93
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate53.3%
Conceded 3+ rate30.0%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
History Matches29
Result entropy0.86
Stability score-86.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.58
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches15
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean-1.77
First Half Goals Against Mean0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Long Rest History Matches16
Current Team ELO-114.9
Current Opponent ELO114.9
Current ELO Difference-229.8
Expected score-0.32
History Matches29
Residual Mean-0.65
Overperformance-12.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.76

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dubai City

L
Dibba Al Hisn4–1Dubai City30 Oct · away
Pick: Dibba Al Hisn 82% · hit
L
Dubai City0–2Al Hamriyah17 Oct · home
Pick: Dubai City 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Forte Virtus

D
Forte Virtus1–1Al Urooba1 Nov · home
Pick: Forte Virtus 43% · missed
W
Al Bataeh2–3Forte Virtus18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Bataeh 52% · missed
L
Al Hamriyah1–0Forte Virtus30 Aug · away
Pick: Al Hamriyah 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dubai City and Forte Virtus meet in Division 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:50 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dubai City win 28.8%, draw 18.3%, Forte Virtus win 52.8%. The pick is Forte Virtus win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.