Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Saarbrücken U19
Match result probability Model pick: Alemannia Aachen U19 win
Alemannia Aachen U19 winPick
77.1%
Draw
9.7%
Saarbrücken U19 win
13.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.1%
No38.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.580.8%
Under 2.519.2%
How much we know
Alemannia Aachen U19 history43 matches
Saarbrücken U19 history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Alemannia Aachen U19
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Alemannia Aachen U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Alemannia Aachen U19 are rated 62 Elo points higher
Elo 1,475 against 1,413. On rating alone Alemannia Aachen U19 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.47 goals a game over 43 matches for Alemannia Aachen U19, against 1.37 over 41 for Saarbrücken U19.
-
Alemannia Aachen U19 concede fewer
Alemannia Aachen U19 concede 1.77 a game, Saarbrücken U19 2.85.
-
Saarbrücken U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals
63% of Alemannia Aachen U19 matches, against 80% for Saarbrücken U19. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saarbrücken U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1475.2
ELO
1413.2
43
ELO · Matches
41
1475.2
Current Team ELO
1413.2
1413.2
Current Opponent ELO
1475.2
61.98
Current ELO Difference
-61.98
0.59
Expected score
0.41
43
History Matches
41
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.10
47.89
Overperformance
42.98
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.60
Goals against per game
5.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
3.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.33
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
43
Matches
41
1.26
PPG
0.85
32.6%
Win rate
22.0%
27.9%
Draw rate
19.5%
39.5%
Loss rate
58.5%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.2%
62.8%
Over 2.5 rate
80.5%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
63.4%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
21
1.38
PPG
0.81
42.9%
Win rate
19.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
23.8%
47.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
81.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
61.9%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.60
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.37
81.4%
Scoring rate
63.4%
60.5%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.14
81.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
47.6%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
43
History Matches
41
1.47
Goals Mean
1.37
1.15
Goals Std
1.36
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.4%
44.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.77
Goals against per game
2.85
76.7%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.57
Goals against per game
2.90
66.7%
Conceding rate
81.0%
3.33
Goals against per game
6.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
41
1.77
Conceded Mean
2.85
1.43
Conceded Std
2.11
51.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
73.2%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
53.7%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
43
History Matches
41
0.99
Result entropy
0.88
1.99
Goal Difference Std
2.79
0.93
Stability score
12.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
40
10
Lead Matches
9
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
20
27.8%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.48
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.17
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-6.33
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.51
Portability PPG Range
1.04
44.73
Portability Score
53.48
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
43
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO61.98
PPG0.40
GF0.10
GA-1.09
PPG0.33
PPG0.57
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate18.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.82
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.09
Conceded Std-0.69
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches2
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.80
Stability score-11.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.50
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate17.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.66
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-8.75
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO61.98
Current Opponent ELO-61.98
Current ELO Difference124.0
Expected score0.18
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Alemannia Aachen U19
L
Borussia M'bach U195–1Alemannia Aachen U197 Nov · away
Pick: Borussia M'bach U19 65% · hit W
Alemannia Aachen U195–1Elversberg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Alemannia Aachen U19 49% · hit D
Alemannia Aachen U190–0Bochum U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Bochum U19 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Saarbrücken U19
L
Saarbrücken U190–5Bayer Leverkusen U197 Nov · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 84% · hit L
Saarbrücken U191–3Borussia M'bach U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'bach U19 83% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Alemannia Aachen U19 and Saarbrücken U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Alemannia Aachen U19 win 77.1%, draw 9.7%, Saarbrücken U19 win 13.2%. The pick is Alemannia Aachen U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.8%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.