ScoreProb
2. Lig Türkiye 2. Lig White Group - 10 2026

Aliağa FAŞ vs Muş Sport Klübü

Aliağa FAŞ Home · Elo 1,617
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Muş Sport Klübü Away · Elo 1,630
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Muş Sport Klübü win
Aliağa FAŞ win
31.9%
Draw
25.8%
Muş Sport Klübü winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Aliağa FAŞ history57 matches
Muş Sport Klübü history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Muş Sport Klübü are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,617 against 1,630. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.37 goals a game over 57 matches for Aliağa FAŞ, against 2.32 over 60 for Muş Sport Klübü.

  • Muş Sport Klübü concede fewer

    Aliağa FAŞ concede 1.09 a game, Muş Sport Klübü 0.95.

  • Aliağa FAŞ games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Aliağa FAŞ matches, against 60% for Muş Sport Klübü. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aliağa FAŞ
Muş Sport Klübü
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.4
ELO
1630.4
57
ELO · Matches
60
1617.4
Current Team ELO
1630.4
1630.4
Current Opponent ELO
1617.4
-12.94
Current ELO Difference
12.94
0.48
Expected score
0.52
57
History Matches
60
0.10
Residual Mean
0.11
57.33
Overperformance
58.59
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
60
2.09
PPG
2.03
63.2%
Win rate
60.0%
19.3%
Draw rate
23.3%
17.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
2.36
PPG
1.74
75.0%
Win rate
51.9%
10.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
29.6%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.37
Goals for per game
2.32
86.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
49.1%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.96
96.4%
Scoring rate
81.5%
46.4%
BTTS rate
59.3%
57
History Matches
60
2.37
Goals Mean
2.32
1.88
Goals Std
1.85
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.0%
63.2%
Scored 2+ rate
58.3%
43.9%
Scored 3+ rate
43.3%
2.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.09
Goals against per game
0.95
59.6%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.22
50.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
57
History Matches
60
1.09
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.41
Conceded Std
1.01
21.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
60
0.83
Result entropy
0.86
2.57
Goal Difference Std
2.26
16.89
Stability score
14.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
59
30
Lead Matches
30
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
10
40.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
187.2
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.92
52.94
Portability Score
59.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-12.94
PPG0.05
GF0.05
GA0.14
PPG0.62
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.32
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score2.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.36
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-6.20
Rest days5.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO-12.94
Current Opponent ELO12.94
Current ELO Difference-25.88
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aliağa FAŞ

L
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik3–2Aliağa FAŞ1 Nov · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 41% · missed
W
Pazarspor0–1Aliağa FAŞ27 Oct · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 39% · hit
W
Aliağa FAŞ2–168 Aksaray Belediyespor24 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 53% · hit
W
Somaspor1–2Aliağa FAŞ18 Oct · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Muş Sport Klübü

W
Muş Sport Klübü7–1Adana Demirspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 80% · hit
W
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu1–2Muş Sport Klübü27 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 73% · hit
L
Sebat Gençlikspor3–2Muş Sport Klübü24 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 40% · missed
W
Muş Sport Klübü4–2Ankaraspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aliağa FAŞ and Muş Sport Klübü meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aliağa FAŞ win 31.9%, draw 25.8%, Muş Sport Klübü win 42.2%. The pick is Muş Sport Klübü win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.