ScoreProb
2. Lig Türkiye 2. Lig Red Group - 10 2026

Ankaragücü vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

Ankaragücü Home · Elo 1,553
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor Away · Elo 1,608
Eryaman Stadium, Ankara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ankaragücü win
Ankaragücü winPick
37.8%
Draw
26.5%
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Ankaragücü history57 matches
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 3 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ankaragücü are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,553. On rating alone Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor score far more

    1.39 goals a game over 57 matches for Ankaragücü, against 2.17 over 58 for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor.

  • Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor concede fewer

    Ankaragücü concede 1.33 a game, Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1.07.

  • Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Ankaragücü matches, against 62% for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ankaragücü
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.1
ELO
1608.3
57
ELO · Matches
58
1553.1
Current Team ELO
1608.3
1608.3
Current Opponent ELO
1553.1
-55.20
Current ELO Difference
55.20
0.42
Expected score
0.58
57
History Matches
58
0.05
Residual Mean
0.09
53.65
Overperformance
56.83
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
58
1.44
PPG
1.93
40.4%
Win rate
58.6%
22.8%
Draw rate
17.2%
36.8%
Loss rate
24.1%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.69
PPG
1.24
48.3%
Win rate
34.5%
24.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
27.6%
Loss rate
44.8%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
2.17
80.7%
Scoring rate
82.8%
56.1%
BTTS rate
46.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.79
82.8%
Scoring rate
75.9%
48.3%
BTTS rate
58.6%
57
History Matches
58
1.39
Goals Mean
2.17
1.06
Goals Std
1.72
80.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
60.3%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.07
71.9%
Conceding rate
55.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.59
62.1%
Conceding rate
72.4%
57
History Matches
58
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.19
Conceded Std
1.38
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.73
Goal Difference Std
2.37
2.50
Stability score
12.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
57
16
Lead Matches
24
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
22
Trailing Matches
12
36.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
196.0
Rest days
187.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
11
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.25
57.14
Portability Score
81.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-55.20
PPG-0.49
GF-0.79
GA0.26
PPG0.45
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.79
Goals Std-0.67
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.64
Stability score-10.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate3.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-24.14
Rest days9.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO-55.20
Current Opponent ELO55.20
Current ELO Difference-110.4
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ankaragücü

W
Adana Adaletgucu1–2Ankaragücü27 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 40% · hit
D
Ankaragücü2–21461 Trabzon FK24 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaragücü 49% · missed
D
Fethiyespor2–2Ankaragücü17 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 40% · missed
W
Ankaragücü4–1İnegölspor4 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaragücü 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

W
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor2–1İnegölspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 60% · hit
W
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik1–4 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor27 Oct · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 39% · hit
L
Karacabey Belediyespor3–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor24 Oct · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 43% · missed
W
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor4–1Serik Spor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 64% · hit
W
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor1–0Ankara Demirspor4 Oct · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 62% · hit

About this match

Ankaragücü and Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Eryaman Stadium, Ankara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Ankaragücü win 37.8%, draw 26.5%, Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win 35.7%. The pick is Ankaragücü win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.