Altrincham vs Notts County
Match result probability Model pick: Notts County win
Altrincham win
37.3%
Draw
25.1%
Notts County winPick
37.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
How much we know
Altrincham history86 matches
Notts County history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Notts County
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Notts County are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Notts County are rated 69 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,470. On rating alone Notts County would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Notts County score more
1.22 goals a game over 86 matches for Altrincham, against 1.41 over 85 for Notts County.
-
Notts County concede fewer
Altrincham concede 1.53 a game, Notts County 1.15.
-
Altrincham games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Altrincham matches, against 52% for Notts County. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Notts County@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1470.5
ELO
1539.1
86
ELO · Matches
85
1470.5
Current Team ELO
1539.1
1539.1
Current Opponent ELO
1470.5
-68.66
Current ELO Difference
68.66
0.40
Expected score
0.60
86
History Matches
85
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.75
Overperformance
51.77
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals 90
86
Matches
85
1.13
PPG
1.49
31.4%
Win rate
42.4%
18.6%
Draw rate
22.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
35.3%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.3%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.8%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.7%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
43
Matches
43
1.40
PPG
1.42
41.9%
Win rate
39.5%
14.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
44.2%
Loss rate
37.2%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
43
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.41
79.1%
Scoring rate
75.3%
62.8%
BTTS rate
51.8%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.23
86.0%
Scoring rate
69.8%
67.4%
BTTS rate
46.5%
86
History Matches
85
1.22
Goals Mean
1.41
0.92
Goals Std
1.23
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.3%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.15
80.2%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.19
81.4%
Conceding rate
74.4%
86
History Matches
85
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.21
Conceded Std
0.95
47.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.1%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
19.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
19.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
86
History Matches
85
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.72
6.87
Stability score
2.94
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
86
Eligible Matches
85
28
Lead Matches
25
67.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.80
30
Trailing Matches
20
16.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.25
Rest days
77.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
65
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.98
53.12
Portability Score
57.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
86
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-68.66
PPG-0.37
GF-0.19
GA0.38
PPG-0.02
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score3.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-4.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-68.66
Current Opponent ELO68.66
Current ELO Difference-137.3
Expected score-0.20
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Altrincham
L
Altrincham2–4Carlisle31 Oct · home
Pick: Carlisle 49% · hit D
Altrincham0–0Kidderminster Harriers27 Oct · home
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 52% · missed W
Yeovil Town1–2Altrincham24 Oct · away
Pick: Yeovil Town 48% · missed D
Altrincham0–0United of Manchester17 Oct · home
Pick: Altrincham 47% · missed W
Forest Green1–2Altrincham31 Aug · away
Pick: Forest Green 53% · missed Notts County
W
Mansfield Town0–2Notts County31 Oct · away
Pick: Mansfield Town 41% · missed D
Notts County1–1Stockport County24 Oct · home
Pick: Stockport County 40% · missed W
Notts County2–0Sheffield Wednesday20 Oct · home
Pick: Notts County 53% · hit L
Wycombe2–0Notts County17 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 47% · hit W
Notts County5–1Nottingham Forest U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Notts County 54% · hit About this match
Altrincham and Notts County meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Moss Lane, Altrincham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Altrincham win 37.3%, draw 25.1%, Notts County win 37.6%. The pick is Notts County win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.