ScoreProb
Log in
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 19 2026

Alvechurch vs Hitchin Town

Alvechurch Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hitchin Town Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alvechurch win
Alvechurch winPick
58.1%
Draw
21.5%
Hitchin Town win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

Alvechurch history76 matches
Hitchin Town history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Alvechurch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,523 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hitchin Town score far more

    1.20 goals a game over 76 matches for Alvechurch, against 1.89 over 62 for Hitchin Town.

  • Alvechurch concede fewer

    Alvechurch concede 1.17 a game, Hitchin Town 1.45.

  • Hitchin Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Alvechurch matches, against 65% for Hitchin Town. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alvechurch
Hitchin Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.7
ELO
1530.8
76
ELO · Matches
62
1522.7
Current Team ELO
1530.8
1530.8
Current Opponent ELO
1522.7
-8.12
Current ELO Difference
8.12
0.49
Expected score
0.51
76
History Matches
62
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.51
Overperformance
52.32
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.81
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
62
1.29
PPG
1.52
34.2%
Win rate
43.5%
26.3%
Draw rate
21.0%
39.5%
Loss rate
35.5%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.4%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
29
1.49
PPG
1.48
41.0%
Win rate
41.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
24.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
34.5%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
62.1%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
39
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.89
65.8%
Scoring rate
85.5%
46.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.44
Goals for per game
2.17
82.1%
Scoring rate
93.1%
56.4%
BTTS rate
62.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
62
1.20
Goals Mean
1.89
1.15
Goals Std
1.55
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
24.2%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
2.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.45
69.7%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.52
71.8%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
62
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.02
Conceded Std
1.28
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
6.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
6.9%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.45
Goal Difference Std
2.39
1.22
Stability score
3.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
54
16
Lead Matches
24
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
17
28.6%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
58
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
0.50
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.69
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.67
49.93
Portability Score
41.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.12
PPG-0.23
GF-0.69
GA-0.28
PPG1.75
PPG0.00
PPG1.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate19.7%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.92
History Matches14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.94
Stability score-2.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.28
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score7.94
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.18
Current Team ELO-8.12
Current Opponent ELO8.12
Current ELO Difference-16.25
Expected score-0.02
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alvechurch

L
Plymouth4–0Alvechurch7 Nov · away
Pick: Plymouth 56% · hit
W
Leiston1–3Alvechurch31 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 39% · hit
D
Alvechurch2–2Anstey Nomads27 Oct · home
Pick: Alvechurch 46% · missed
D
Stratford Town4–4Alvechurch24 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 41% · missed
D
Spalding United2–2Alvechurch17 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 40% · missed

Hitchin Town

W
Leighton Town1–3Hitchin Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Leighton Town 51% · missed
L
Stratford Town3–1Hitchin Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Stratford Town 39% · hit
W
Hitchin Town5–1Bury Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Bury Town 48% · missed
W
Hitchin Town3–0Stamford20 Oct · home
Pick: Hitchin Town 51% · hit
L
Halesowen Town2–1Hitchin Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 59% · hit

About this match

Alvechurch and Hitchin Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Alvechurch win 58.1%, draw 21.5%, Hitchin Town win 20.4%. The pick is Alvechurch win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.