ScoreProb
Log in
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 19 2026

Bury Town vs Rushall Olympic

Bury Town Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rushall Olympic Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bury Town win
Bury Town winPick
50.3%
Draw
24.4%
Rushall Olympic win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Bury Town history61 matches
Rushall Olympic history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Bury Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bury Town are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,498. On rating alone Bury Town would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Bury Town score more

    1.59 goals a game over 61 matches for Bury Town, against 1.24 over 70 for Rushall Olympic.

  • Bury Town concede fewer

    Bury Town concede 1.20 a game, Rushall Olympic 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Bury Town matches, against 54% for Rushall Olympic. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bury Town
Rushall Olympic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.3
ELO
1497.6
61
ELO · Matches
70
1568.3
Current Team ELO
1497.6
1497.6
Current Opponent ELO
1568.3
70.78
Current ELO Difference
-70.78
0.60
Expected score
0.40
61
History Matches
70
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
54.30
Overperformance
50.04
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.80
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
70
1.57
PPG
1.19
42.6%
Win rate
31.4%
29.5%
Draw rate
24.3%
27.9%
Loss rate
44.3%
77.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
1.65
PPG
1.09
41.9%
Win rate
28.6%
38.7%
Draw rate
22.9%
19.4%
Loss rate
48.6%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
35.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.24
80.3%
Scoring rate
74.3%
54.1%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.03
87.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
70
1.59
Goals Mean
1.24
1.21
Goals Std
1.13
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
45.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.67
68.9%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.74
64.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.50
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
70
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.13
Conceded Std
1.39
31.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.3%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.83
1.72
Stability score
2.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
69
21
Lead Matches
13
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.64
11
Trailing Matches
23
27.3%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
48
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
9
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.25
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
8
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.77
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.89
39.91
Portability Score
39.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO70.78
PPG0.39
GF0.35
GA-0.47
PPG0.75
PPG0.56
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-1.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate22.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate14.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score0.61
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.89
Current Team ELO70.78
Current Opponent ELO-70.78
Current ELO Difference141.6
Expected score0.20
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bury Town

W
Racing Club Warwick1–3Bury Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Bury Town 48% · hit
L
Bury Town2–3Kettering Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Bury Town 50% · missed
D
Bury Town2–2Banbury United31 Oct · home
Pick: Bury Town 61% · missed
L
Hitchin Town5–1Bury Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 48% · missed
D
Real Bedford2–2Bury Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 53% · missed

Rushall Olympic

L
Real Bedford3–0Rushall Olympic7 Nov · away
Pick: Real Bedford 58% · hit
L
Rushall Olympic0–1Racing Club Warwick31 Oct · home
Pick: Rushall Olympic 52% · missed
L
Kettering Town3–2Rushall Olympic27 Oct · away
Pick: Kettering Town 44% · hit
W
Rushall Olympic3–1Leamington20 Oct · home
Pick: Rushall Olympic 53% · hit
W
Leighton Town0–3Rushall Olympic17 Oct · away
Pick: Leighton Town 39% · missed

About this match

Bury Town and Rushall Olympic meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bury Town win 50.3%, draw 24.4%, Rushall Olympic win 25.3%. The pick is Bury Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.