Needham Market vs Banbury United
Match result probability Model pick: Needham Market win
Needham Market winPick
37.3%
Draw
28.1%
Banbury United win
34.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%
How much we know
Needham Market history73 matches
Banbury United history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Needham Market
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Needham Market are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,522 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Needham Market score more
1.42 goals a game over 73 matches for Needham Market, against 1.12 over 74 for Banbury United.
-
Banbury United concede fewer
Needham Market concede 1.41 a game, Banbury United 1.19.
-
Needham Market games more often go over 2.5 goals
55% of Needham Market matches, against 45% for Banbury United. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Banbury United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1522.5
ELO
1514.8
73
ELO · Matches
74
1522.5
Current Team ELO
1514.8
1514.8
Current Opponent ELO
1522.5
7.67
Current ELO Difference
-7.67
0.51
Expected score
0.49
73
History Matches
74
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.31
Overperformance
50.56
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals 90
73
Matches
74
1.41
PPG
1.38
41.1%
Win rate
36.5%
17.8%
Draw rate
28.4%
41.1%
Loss rate
35.1%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
38
1.78
PPG
1.11
56.8%
Win rate
28.9%
8.1%
Draw rate
23.7%
35.1%
Loss rate
47.4%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
37
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.12
69.9%
Scoring rate
60.8%
50.7%
BTTS rate
39.2%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.03
78.4%
Scoring rate
52.6%
54.1%
BTTS rate
34.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
74
1.42
Goals Mean
1.12
1.43
Goals Std
1.20
69.9%
Scored 1+ rate
60.8%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.19
78.1%
Conceding rate
62.2%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.34
73.0%
Conceding rate
65.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
74
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.13
Conceded Std
1.23
41.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
73
History Matches
74
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.79
5.50
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
71
Eligible Matches
74
20
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
21
28.6%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
61
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.67
44.81
Portability Score
67.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
73
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.67
PPG0.03
GF0.30
GA0.22
PPG-0.25
PPG0.68
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.6%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score4.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-22.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO7.67
Current Opponent ELO-7.67
Current ELO Difference15.35
Expected score0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Needham Market
W
Needham Market4–1Stourbridge7 Nov · home
Pick: Stourbridge 41% · missed D
Redditch United3–3Needham Market31 Oct · away
Pick: Redditch United 49% · missed D
Needham Market1–1Leighton Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 42% · missed L
Needham Market0–2Wingate & Finchley24 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 55% · missed W
Needham Market2–1Bishop's Stortford20 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 46% · hit Banbury United
L
Banbury United0–1Leamington7 Nov · home
Pick: Banbury United 55% · missed D
Bury Town2–2Banbury United31 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 61% · missed L
Banbury United0–3Worcester City27 Oct · home
Pick: Banbury United 37% · missed L
Bourne Town1–0Banbury United24 Oct · away
Pick: Banbury United 54% · missed W
Banbury United1–0Leighton Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Banbury United 38% · hit About this match
Needham Market and Banbury United meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Needham Market win 37.3%, draw 28.1%, Banbury United win 34.5%. The pick is Needham Market win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.